The Green Bay Packers made a decisive change at running back in 2024, releasing Aaron Jones minutes after signing Josh Jacobs in free agency. Besides the financial differences and the fact that Jacobs is three years younger, the Packers have hopes that Jacobs can go back to his 2022 production, when he was one of the best and most effective running backs in football.

There has been a regression, but Green Bay is mostly betting against what the Raiders put around Jacobs in 2023. And if that's really the case, it makes sense. Green Bay has at least three good reasons to think Jacobs can be better in Green Bay than he was in Las Vegas.

Lighter boxes

It's fair to say that no running back in the NFL had a more difficult life than Josh Jacob in 2023. Last year, he faced the most stacked boxes in the entire league, with an average of 7.2 defenders in the box per attempt.

That happened mostly because the Raiders had a combination of Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brian Hoyer at quarterback, motivating opposing defensive coordinators to prioritize stopping the run. That at least partially explains why Jacobs wasn't as effective on a play-by-play basis as he had been in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Packers have a much more complete and diverse offense, and part of Aaron Jones efficiency was his chances against lighter boxes. With a high-level quarterback like Jordan Love at the helm, it's much more difficult for defenses to stack the box, so the general approach is to keep it balanced — or even stackign the secondary —, opening up more running lanes.

Receiving usage upgrade

Josh Jacobs has the skill set to be a really good receiving running back, but the Raiders simply underutilized him for a reason or another. Throughout his career, Jacobs has had 2.7 receptions per game — mostly dump offs —, while former Packers running back has had 2.8 receptions per game. The difference is almost insignificant, right? But Jones has 18 touchdown receptions, and Jacobs hasn't scored a single receiving TD in the NFL.

Last season, Jacobs had slightly more yards per target (5.5) than Jones (5.4) and also more yards per reception (8.0 to 7.8).

"The way we evaluate these runners," head coach Matt LaFleur recently said, "you almost have to be able to catch the ball out of the backfield now."

Jacobs can, it's just a matter of correct usage and enough opportunities. Not only in dump offs, but also using his ability to run routes.

So glad to see the #RaiderNation getting Josh Jacobs in space as a receiver. pic.twitter.com/Gttn2tNkvj

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 25, 2021

Offensive line help

There was a feeling around the Packers last year that the offensive line wasn't that good in run block. And that's a valid perception, since the team fell from 8th in 2022 to 16th in 2023 in run block win rate. That being said, the Packers were still better than the Raiders (18th) in run block, and that difference can be more pronounced in 2024 if the line goes back to the performance they had two years ago.

Zach Tom's progress going into year 3, Sean Rhyan establishing himself as the starter, and continuity for the starting lineup can all be important factors in that regard. If the o-line helps, Jacobs has the possibility to get closer to his production in 2022.

Three reasons behind the Packers’ decision to move on from Aaron Jones to sign Josh Jacobs

Green Bay released Jones after seven seasons