Two Round 2024 NFL Mock Draft based on GM tendencies, betting odds, visits, team needs, and draft projections
The NFL Draft is finally here, and it's time for one final mock draft.This two round 2024 NFL Mock draft encompasses every single type of predictive information available to the public. In preparation for this set of 64 picks I built a model that utilizes data from over 400 mock drafts, general manager tendencies, betting […]
The NFL Draft is finally here, and it's time for one final mock draft.
This two round 2024 NFL Mock draft encompasses every single type of predictive information available to the public. In preparation for this set of 64 picks I built a model that utilizes data from over 400 mock drafts, general manager tendencies, betting market odds, pre-draft visits, most important team needs, and production profiles for every NFL Draft prospect.
I then used that information to build what should be the perfect two round 2024 NFL Mock Draft. No trades. Those will play themselves out. This is a strictly data driven mock draft that points us to where players should land in the order that every piece of data is telling us they should go as the draft is currently constructed.
So, without further ado, here's the final and best 2024 NFL mock draft you'll ever read:
Round 1
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB USC
Caleb Williams has been the QB1 in this draft class for three years now. Don't let the "anonymous scout" quotes here recently take any attention away from the fact that he'll be the best Bears quarterback of all-time the moment he's drafted. Elite pass efficiency markets for three straight seasons. Unbelievable ability to create something out of nothing. Underrated mobility. He has it all.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU
Jayden Daniels just posted the most efficient quarterback season in the history of college football last fall based on most every predictive metric that means anything whatsoever. Despite the recent nonsensical noise about him wanting to be elsewhere, he is the perfect fit for what Kliff Kingsbury will want to do on offense. Betting markets, visits, and mock draft data all agree. Daniels is the pick for the Commanders.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
The Patriots tried to act like they were going to move this pick, and they still may attempt to do so, but the best pick here is Drake Maye. His 2022 advanced passing and rushing metrics were better than anyone in this class besides Caleb Williams. He struggled with some inconsistencies in decision making last fall, but it doesn't take long watching him to realize why he's still the betting markets favorite to go third overall. If you've forgotten what he looks like when he's "on" just check out some of his 2023 highlights below.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State
Marvin Harrison Jr. posted back to back 95th percentile (or better) seasons from a production profile stand point, has Hall of Fame pedigree, and is perhaps the most complete wide receiver prospect to enter the NFL Draft in years. Despite some late buzz from a few "sources" around the league, Harrison Jr. is still largely expected to be the first wide receiver off the board. If the Cardinals don't trade back with the Vikings (like Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort loves to do), expect Harrison Jr. to be the pick.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR LSU
Jim Harbaugh is a wild card head coach who loves to run the football, but the Chargers don't have a single player returning who caught more than 38 receptions for them last season. They absolutely cannot enter the 2024 season with Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and Derius Davis (who is really just a gadget player) as their top three receiving options. Nabers averaged over four yards per team pass attempt last season, which is 100th percentile among even first round wide receiver prospects. Speed. Versatility. Nabers is a special wide receiver.
6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR Washington
Joe Schoen, Brian Daboll, and even former NFL general managers have insisted that the Giants are not going to be taking a quarterback in round one. Daniel Jones is probably not the answer at quarterback, but they have to upgrade at wide receiver. Rome Odunze gives them a real outside threat with size, speed, athleticism, and phenomenal ball tracking skills. Betting markets have been pulling Odunze's average draft expectation just below this, but every other variable agrees this spot is still quite likely.
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame
The Titans want to get another receiver in this draft class, but if the first three come off the board then Joe Alt becomes the absolute slam dunk pick here. The Titans have met with Alt privately several times at this point and have made it clear they're extremely interested. They need to protect Levis and improve an offensive line that was bottom quartile by most every measure a year ago. At 6'9" with length and power Alt is the clear OT1 in class. Pick seven accounts for over 50% of Alt's implied probability via my model and most sports book odds.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama
The Falcons are going to be picking Dallas Turner. They have a massive need at edge defender. Turner's best athletic comp is Von Miller. He's young, productive, and efficient as a pass rusher. There's nothing not to like about the pick here for Atlanta. Some sports books have taken down Dallas Turner bets already because this has become such chalk.
9. Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
This pick in particular may surprise some people, but the Bears need to continue building around Caleb Williams on offense. They already have two incredible wide receivers in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Brock Bowers would give them the ultimate offensive weapon who can line up as a big slot, in-line, outside, anywhere the Bears need him. His athleticism and certifiably unprecedented early career production make him an elite tight end prospect that the Bears should not pass up.
10. New York Jets: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT Penn State
If Brock Bowers does fall here, the Jets will likely make that pick. Betting markets are almost sure of it. But the next best bet is Olu Fashanu. He has every single trait teams look for in a dominant offensive tackle except for his hand size. Fashanu has been slated as a top ten pick for over a year now and the Jets need to keep Aaron Rodgers upright.
11. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan
J.J. McCarthy is going to end up a Viking some way or another. It may be via trade up, but the team has made it clear all spring he's their guy. They positioned themselves in a way to trade up if they had to, and may do so. McCarthy's key rate stats and QB efficiency composite score (16-pronged production model) suggest he was a top five quarterback in all of college football last year despite not putting up wild volume-based numbers. He very much deserves to be a first round pick, regardless of what the doubters might say.
12. Denver Broncos: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo
The Broncos have Zach Wilson, so their problems are obviously solved at quarterback now (this is where you're supposed to chuckle). Sean Payton knows the team has several other needs too. Taking the best corner in the draft to pair with Patrick Surtain II would give the Broncos a top five tandem at cornerback immediately. That might keep their terrible offense in some games this fall. Mitchell is the chalk CB1 via mock draft data, big boards, and betting markets.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: JC Latham, OT Alabama
The Raiders desperately need a right tackle. JC Latham falls into their lap as the one with the most prototypical first round offensive tackle measurements and the most experience against top competition. The only other choice here may be Taliese Fuaga, but he lacks the typical early first round physical traits that Latham possesses.
14. New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State
The Saints might even need offensive tackle more than the Raiders. Injury issues on the right side of their line. Benching their starter on the left. Some sports books have removed the "first position taken by Saints" bets because it's so obvious where they're going. Fuaga has an aggressive blocking and play style that would immediate transform one side of their offensive line.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
Terrion Arnold is the most well-rounded do-it-all cornerback in this class. From run defense, to ball hawking, to consistency and efficiency in coverage, Arnold is an elite cornerback prospect. All of his data patterns from mock drafts to betting odds have fluctuated back and forth over the last few weeks, but he's settling in right around this pick as his most likely midpoint.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA
Laiatu Latu saw his mock average draft position dip inexplicably a few weeks ago, but every other variable has been consistent. Latu's pass rush pressure rate stats are the best in the class. He has the most versatile set of moves and counters. The only concern with him has been his injury history, but that didn't slow him down at all last season. The Seahawks have plenty of raw upside pass rushers. Latu gives them a technician. Brian Baldinger's breakdown of Latu below speaks perfectly to how special he is.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State
Verse has seen his draft projection and positional ranking fall from the top overall edge prospect (near the end of last season) to the clear consensus third best option in the class. However, that still means his projected draft day mid point is right smack dab at pick 17 based on all relevant information. Verse added weight to fit a certain positional archetype last season and finished strong. He just doesn't have as strong an overall profile as Turner or Latu.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Troy Fautanu, OT Washington
Troy Fautanu's potential positional versatility to play inside or outside, his consistent advanced pass block win rate stats, and traits all make him a great fit for the Bengals. They really need to keep Joe Burrow upright, and Fautanu profiles as the highest rated multi-positional offensive line prospect by many draft experts.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Byron Murphy, DL Texas
Just this week there has been some steam in betting markets and mock draft data to suggest Murphy may go higher than this. However, the preceding several weeks of data, his size profile, and historic comparisons suggest that pick 19 certainly makes far more sense than pick 9 (where one major sports book moved him just this week).
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, OL Duke
When I spoke with Graham Barton I realized why so many teams are interested in him playing on the inside, instead of his college position of offensive tackle. He is smart, technical, and understands leverage in a way that suggests he could direct an entire offensive line. He would make a good offensive tackle (despite his arm length). But he would make an elite center, which is what the Steelers would be drafting him to play long-term.
Graham Barton is the versatile offensive lineman everyone should hope their team selects in the 2024 NFL Draft
Former Duke OT that will succeed wherever he’s drafted
21. Miami Dolphins: Jer'Zhan Newton, DL Illinois
For over a year Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton was an absolute lock for mid-first round capital. It was only after the NFL Combine that the masses began to overthink him. Recent mock draft data, a surge in private visits info, and slight correction from betting markets have him trending towards the early 20s again. Newton would fill a great need for the Dolphins. Yes, the team tried to patchwork their defensive front in free agency, but not with many (or any) difference makers.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa
Cooper DeJean fits the Eagles perfectly as a player who can play corner or safety for them. The Eagles need to get younger at corner, and could use safety depth too. DeJean's versatility could make him a near every down player immediately and bring some return game value to them as well. He's an elite former four-sport athlete who saw his stock dip briefly due to injury recovery, but he shouldn't fall below this point.
23. Minnesota Vikings (via HOU): Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson
The Vikings may not have this pick when it's all said and done, and the latest juice via sports betting suggests he may go later. However, the vast majority of his mock draft data, speed, and coverage statistical profile suggest he will be going somewhere in the mid-20s on draft day.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia
Amarius Mims is one of those players that we knew was going to be a first round pick when he was 16. He's been a monstrous 6'8", over 300-pound physical force for several years now. He did miss time at Georgia due to injury, but he has all the physical tools to step in and be a perennial pro bowl tackle for the Cowboys.
Believe it or not, the video below from when Mims was still a five star high school recruit is very real. The players next to him are his teammates, many of the same age, which is quite hilarious.
25. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma
This pick has the lowest confidence level rating in the entire first round based on what the model suggests. Guyton's expected midpoint via most data sources is a bit later. However, the GM tendencies, positional need, and other players who went ahead of this pick forced the model to assume this to be the most ideal. Guyton isn't the most experienced tackle, but when I talked to opposing defenders about who they hated facing most at the Senior Bowl or in actual college games his name came up more than any other. His first step off the ball and ferocious power apparently made him a nightmare for defenses.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State
There's a clear drop off from EDGE3 to EDGE4, but Chop Robinson's NFL Combine performance puts him on an island by himself at the position here. The Buccaneers could go in a number of directions, but most any projection model build would concentrate his midpoint around this spot. Positional need, betting markets, mock draft data. Everything points to a fit here.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU
This pick was the real wild card of round one that I didn't see coming. Second lowest confidence level of any fit in round one via the model. However, after looking at the mock draft trends sliding slightly towards the mid-20s, betting markets tipping to over 20 as well, and the Cardinals extreme need I didn't manually adjust here. If the Cardinals somehow landed both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brian Thomas Jr. their offense would be unbelievable.
28. Buffalo Bills: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
This pick was one of the most robustly informed selections of round one via the model. Worthy was the perfect mix of private/formal visits, mock draft data, betting market equilibrium, production profile, and testing numbers to suggest this is the exact spot where he goes. The Bills haven't hid their interest and could use game-breaking speed for Josh Allen to target. And he's way more than just speed. He brings nuance, burst, flexibility, and more as you can see in the post from Texas Football below.
29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
Kool-Aid's draft stock took a steep plummet from top ten pick to the late first round from December through late March, but the drop finally leveled off as people realized he was one of the most productive pass defenders in college football a couple seasons ago. The Lions could still use a cornerback, even after adding Carlton Davis via trade.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
The Ravens could use an elite athlete with size at wide receiver to supplement what they already have in Zay Flowers and their other wide receivers. Mitchell's production profile at Georgia and Texas was spotty at best, but his peak moments in big games were incredible. Mitchell's draft day range of expectations have been the most consistent among all later first and early second round wide receivers.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OL Arizona
Jordan Morgan was one of the most improved offensive tackles from start to finish in his college career for Arizona. And he could play either tackle or guard for the 49ers to earn early snaps right away. However, Morgan is another lower confidence play here as an "exact" fit since there are several tackles with similar profiles that could be selected in this range. He's also the most likely candidate given his tools, profile, and consensus data available.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
Troy Franklin has excellent marks via player tracking data (peaking above 22 miles per hour), an immaculate production profile by most all meaningful efficiency measures, and has been trending sharply upwards in mock draft and betting markets data in the last week (finally). For over 8 months he was a consensus "end of round one" wide receiver prospect until people wrongly moved him down after he ran *checks notes* a 4.41 forty-yard dash time.
Round 2
Round two was informed similarly via the multifaceted data driven approach for every single pick. If you have questions on this process feel free to reach me on X @FF_TravisM.
33. Carolina Panthers: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon
34. New England Patriots: Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia
35. Arizona Cardinals: Zach Frazier, C West Virginia
36. Washington Commanders: Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota
37. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike Sainristil, CB Michigan
38. Tennessee Titans: Darius Robinson, DL Missouri
39. Carolina Panthers (via NYG): Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina
40. Washington Commanders (via CHI): Chris Braswell, EDGE Alabama
41. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): Payton Wilson, LB NC State
42. Houston Texans (via MIN): Braden Fiske, DL Florida State
43. Atlanta Falcons: Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB Missouri
44. Las Vegas Raiders: Bo Nix, QB Oregon
45. New Orleans Saints (via DEN): Keon Coleman, WR Florida State
46. Indianapolis Colts: Roman Wilson, WR Michigan
47. New York Giants (via SEA): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington
48. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida
49. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE Texas
50. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M
51. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia
52. Los Angeles Rams: Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU
53. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Hall Jr., DL Ohio State
54. Cleveland Browns: Junior Colson, LB Michigan
55. Miami Dolphins: Adisa Isaac, EDGE Penn State
56. Dallas Cowboys: Trey Benson, RB Florida State
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: T.J. Tampa, CB Iowa State
58. Green Bay Packers: Javon Bullard, DB Georgia
59. Houston Texans: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE Western Michigan
60. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Paul, OT Houston
61. Detroit Lions: Christian Haynes, IOL UConn
62. Baltimore Ravens: Bralen Trice, EDGE Washington
63. San Francisco 49ers: Max Melton, CB Rutgers
64. Kansas City Chiefs: Cooper Beebe, OL Kansas State
I hope you enjoyed this data driven mock draft approach! Be looking for more NFL Draft coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
