Packers get great value from one of the least expensive offenses in the NFL
Green Bay Packers pulled off last season. General manager Brian Gutekunst decided to put together the youngest and least expensive offense in football, and the unit was still sixth in DVOA. That trend might continue this year. According to Warren Sharp, from Sharp Football, the Packers currently have the 31st offense in cap space allotted […]
Green Bay Packers pulled off last season. General manager Brian Gutekunst decided to put together the youngest and least expensive offense in football, and the unit was still sixth in DVOA.
That trend might continue this year. According to Warren Sharp, from Sharp Football, the Packers currently have the 31st offense in cap space allotted in 2023. The only cheaper offense is the Pittsburgh Steelers — and that's mostly because they are paying a situationally absurd contract to Russell Wilson.
If you look at the teams with less than $100 million in offensive cash spending, no one was better than the Packers in 2023.
Offensive DVOA in 2023:
- 6th Green Bay Packers
- 15th Pittsburgh Steelers
- 16th Los Angeles Chargers
- 20th Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 25th Tennessee Titans
- 26th Washington Commanders
- 29th New England Patriots
The roster-building process is even more impressive because quarterback Jordan Love is the only first-round pick of the group. The only expensive free agent addition is running back Josh Jacobs, who replaces Aaron Jones. Other than that, it's a bunch of day 2 and day 3 selections.
According to Spotrac, the Packers are also 31st in cash spending — which is actual money spent on the roster and doesn't consider cap trickery. Green Bay will probably end up with an inflated cash number in 2024, considering Jordan Love's likely extension, but it's still a really inexpensive offense producing a lot of good numbers.
Based on RBSDM's numbers, the Packers offense was 5th in EPA/play, 8th in success rate, 4th in dropback EPA, and 10th in rush EPA in 2023.
The most expensive offensive piece of the roster is left guard Elgton Jenkins, whose salary will cost $14.429 million against the Packers' cap in 2024 — presumably, Jordan Love's number might surpass that, even if it's a backloaded contract.
Packers' offense top 10 cap hits in 2024:
- G Elgton Jenkins – $14.429 million
- QB Jordan Love – $12.757 million
- RB Josh Jacobs – $5.307 million
- C Josh Myers – $3.470 million
- G Royce Newman – $3.24 million
- WR Christian Watson – $2.52 million
- TE Luke Musgrave – $1.926 million
- WR Jayden Reed – $1.631 million
- G Sean Rhyan – $1.397 million
- RB AJ Dillon – $1.292 million
Thought process
The Packers achieved this by using several mid-round picks on offensive pieces. Over the last two drafts, they have gotten six wide receivers and two tight ends. In 2021 and 2022, Gutekunst took six offensive linemen. And that's a product of having the highest number of total picks among NFL teams since 2022. This year, they have 11 more, including three compensatory picks.
And the Packers purposefully adopted a youth movement, allowing older players to leave. Last year, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis. This offseason, Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari.
"You can't get those young guys to that speed unless they get to play," Gutekunst said last year. "If they (older players) are out there, those other guys aren't. There would be particular players that I think would make a ton of sense to bring in here and help the offense, defense, special teams. Some guys would come in and, because of their veteran status and where they are in their progression, would take a lot of snaps that maybe these guys need."
Between 2008 and 2021, the bulk of Aaron Rodgers' tenure in Green Bay, the rookie receiver with the most yards was Marquez Valdes-Scantling, with 581 in 2018. Christian Watson broke that mark in 2022, with 611 yards.
Last year, Jayden Reed finished the season with 793 yards, a number no rookie receiver had with Rodgers, and Dontayvion Wicks had 581 yards — the exact same number MVS had in 2018.
That's not necessarily because these players are better — great receivers like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams did much less. It's just because the Packers are willing to try, and it has paid off.
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