49ers' free agency moves put them in excellent position to take stunning gamble in 2024 NFL Draft
The San Francisco 49ers' draft priority is widely considered to be bolstering their pass protection, but their history under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch suggests they could well go in the other direction. Four of the seven drafts under Shanahan and Lynch have seen the 49ers take a defensive lineman with their top pick. Three […]
The San Francisco 49ers' draft priority is widely considered to be bolstering their pass protection, but their history under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch suggests they could well go in the other direction.
Four of the seven drafts under Shanahan and Lynch have seen the 49ers take a defensive lineman with their top pick. Three of those picks were first-rounders, with Drake Jackson the 49ers' top choice in the second round in 2022.
And NFL Media's draft expert Daniel Jeremiah had the Niners continuing that theme in his latest mock, picking San Francisco to take a huge gamble on Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson.
Robinson possesses utterly freakish athleticism and dominated at the NFL Combine, where his workout saw him record the top A to Z Sports' athletic composite score (96.9%) among defensive linemen.
His athletic abilities are in stark contrast to his college production.
The Maryland transfer had only 11.5 sacks over the course of his college career, 9.5 of them coming for Penn State. He fared better in terms of tackles for loss, racking up 20, including a career-high 10 in 2022.
Despite the disappointing numbers, Robinson has almost every trait the 49ers look for in their edge pass rushers. While he does not have the desired arm length — his 32.5-inch arms are only in the 12th percentile for edge rushers — Robinson possesses the attribute that is top of the list for the 49ers covet at the position and could make him very hard for them to turn down.
A near-perfect skill set
Robinson has an outstanding get-off, as his 10-yard split of 1.54 seconds at the Combine reflected, and has the ability to translate his burst off the snap into power to drive blockers back towards the quarterback.
Consistently able to put tackles in the race with his speed around the edge, Robinson has the lower-body flexibility to bend round the corner while running at full speed and can dip his way under the shoulder of tackles and flatten to the quarterback. On top of that, Robinson has inside-out versatility, which came to the fore in a destructive performance last season against Iowa in which his power and his quickness made him a nightmare for the opposing center to deal with.
Robinson is also a huge threat on stunts when lined up inside, Penn State having frequently taken advantage of his lateral quickness by using him as an extremely effective looper.
Though he has proven he can win a range of different ways, Robinson's game is still in need of significant refinement.
Inconsistency issues
He has pass rush moves in his locker, with the rip, swipe and push-pull all part of his repertoire, yet Robinson's approach lacks nuance. Too often Robinson rushes without a clear plan of attack, while he regularly has no answer when the opposing pass protector stops his initial rush.
It is a similar story in the run game. He frequently plays with good leverage that allows him to set the edge and hold his ground at the point of attack, and his explosiveness of the snap enables him to quickly create disruption that blows up plays in the backfield.
Yet by the same token, there have been several games in which Robinson was largely anonymous against the run. That is him in a nutshell. From rushing the passer, to defending the run and even sometimes dropping into coverage, Robinson is a player who looks comfortable doing everything, but doesn't do any of it consistently.
By picking Robinson, the 49ers would essentially be betting on those very enticing flashes, but it's a bet they are in a position to make after their free agency moves.
A restocked depth chart
Despite allowing Chase Young, Randy Gregory and Clelin Ferrell to walk, the 49ers' edge rush depth chart is in a strong spot following their signings on the open market.
The addition of the experienced Leonard Floyd gives the 49ers a productive starter across from Nick Bosa, Floyd having racked up 39.5 sacks over the last four seasons. In Yetur Gross-Matos, the 49ers acquired an edge rusher whose own exciting physical traits have yet to be fully harnessed and who could offer some inside-out versatility. San Francisco will also be hopeful of getting more out of Jackson in his third year, while 2023 fifth-round pick Robert Beal Jr. earned enough trust to play defensive snaps in last season's playoffs.
San Francisco is set up well for the immediate future on the edge, but the selection of Robinson could put them in a tremendous position for the long term, provided they can elicit the consistency that has been lacking from his game.
In Kris Kocurek, the 49ers have the perfect defensive line coach for the job, and the presence of Floyd and San Francisco's reinforced depth at the position means the Niners are in a position where they could bring Robinson along slowly, using him initially as a designated pass rusher on third down in a role similar to how Aldon Smith was used way back in 2011. Smith had 14 sacks as a rookie before posting 19.5 in 2012.
There is no doubt that offensive line is a more pressing need right now. But the draft is not just about drafting for the now.
The 49ers are a team that has long since won on the strength of its defensive front. If properly nurtured, Robinson can ensure they continue to do that over the long term and the 49ers have the ideal ecosystem in which to nurture his considerable talents. It would be a substantial gamble, but no team in the NFL is better suited to making such a bet.
San Francisco 49ers could answer one of the Kyle Shanahan era’s biggest what-ifs in 2024 draft
It’s an intriguing opportunity.
