It certainly sounds like Lions will avoid Chiefs DL Chris Jones
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a second Super Bowl win in three seasons, but not all is rosy with one of their best players in All-Pro defensive lineman, Chris Jones. Both parties have been in a standoff for months now and it has everything to do with Jones' contract. The cliff notes version […]
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a second Super Bowl win in three seasons, but not all is rosy with one of their best players in All-Pro defensive lineman, Chris Jones.
Both parties have been in a standoff for months now and it has everything to do with Jones' contract. The cliff notes version is Jones has one year left on his deal, he's 29-years-old, and he wants $30 million per year. Reports have said the Chiefs have come in at $25 million and the difference is obviously the catalyst behind Jones' holdout.
It's really looking like the holdout will extend into Thursday night's matchup with the Detroit Lions. Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, it's very unlikely Jones plays, which is a big deal since he plays a premier position in the 3-tech position.
"Chances are not good," Fowler said on Monday's edition of Sportscenter. "He already missed yesterday's practice, which is sort of like a normal Wednesday [and a] heavy-lifting practice day getting ready for the week – that's when you put in your game plan. [There are] no reports of him being there, today.
"I'm told the Chiefs have been bracing to be without Chris Jones for the early portion of this season."
If Jones doesn't go, it's a major win for the Lions offense.
"Imagine this offense not having Travis Kelce, not having thier sparkplug, not having a guy they rely on to make the big play," ESPN analyst Ryan Clark said on Sportscenter. "If you're an offensive coordinator, and in this case, you're with the Detroit Lions – now you don't have to change your blocking scheme to make sure 95 [Jones] is doubled. There will be no sliding the line of scrimmage to make sure that he's blocked and Jared Goff is protected. And if you're Jamhyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in that backfield, you feel a little bit better running in-between the tackles…
"…Not having Jones is going to help the Lions and it's going to make Spagnuolo have to find ways to create pressures, which also leaves you susceptible on the back end to giving up big plays – which the Detroit Lions will try to attack."
Goff and a clean pocket are best of friends
The Chiefs need to pressure Goff as much as possible if they want to beat the Lions and that's going to be a lot harder if Jones isn't in the game.
As Clark states, the Lions will attack the Chiefs secondary if there isn't any pressure and Goff will certainly be able to do that with a clean pocket. Per Pro Football Focus, Goff threw 24 touchdowns and just three interceptions over the course of 439 clean dropbacks in 2022. No quarterback even got close to his 8:1 TD-int ratio and Goff's adjusted completion rate of 82.0% was fourth-best among qualifying quarterbacks.
When pressured, Goff threw just five touchdowns to four interceptions and his adjusted completion rate fell to 63.2%. Sure, any quarterback is going to fare worse under pressure, but it's obvious the Lions need to keep Goff out of trouble's way as much as possible.
And of course, a strong running game always helps. Last year, the Chiefs run defense averaged -0.14 EPA/play when Jones was on the field, per Sports Info Solutions. Opposing offenses averaged 0.07 EPA/play running the ball without Jones on the field, which was a stark difference of -0.21 EPA/play. The Lions are one of the NFL's best teams at running the ball, so they're sure to take advantage in that context, as well.
It's clear an absent Jones is going to make life a lot harder for the Chiefs and a lot easier for the Lions. Now, it's just about waiting out the clock until Thursday night.
Final Lions predictions before the 2023 season
It's almost here. We are just days away from the Detroit Lions beginning their 2023 campaign. The Lions will be playing the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs on the NFL's opening night. It's going to be a lot of fun. Now that free agency, the combine, the draft, mini camp, OTA's, training camp and […]
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