The NFL may be an ever-evolving game that will perpetually find ways to change and new trends to capitalize on, but a cemented truth that always holds through is the fact that teams have to be good up front in order to have success on either side of the ball.

The Kansas City Chiefs have a luxury on the defensive line in four-time All-Pro Chris Jones. As we all know, however, both parties are currently in a standoff and it really seems like Jones won't be on the field not just Thursday against the Detroit Lions, but for the foreseeable future, as well.

"Chances are not good," ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler said on Monday's edition of Sportscenter. "He already missed yesterday's practice, which is sort of like a normal Wednesday [and a] heavy-lifting practice day getting ready for the week – that's when you put in your game plan. [There are] no reports of him being there, today.

"I'm told the Chiefs have been bracing to be without Chris Jones for the early portion of this season."

Jones is an elite player, so if his potential absence on Thursday -and beyond- turns into reality then it will undoubtedly affect the Chiefs defense, as a whole.

For starters, and most obviously, the pass rush will take the biggest hit. Elite 3-techs such as Jones are rarities in the NFL and the entire defensive line benefits from their presence. That's because teams will have to use extra support in the form of a center or tackle with the hope the double-team can stop Jones. That either puts guys in 1-on-1 matchups or it frees them up so they can get after the quarterback.

Per Sports Info Solutions, the Chiefs defense took on a 4.4% drop in pressure rate and a 1.3% drop in sack rate when Jones wasn't on the field in 2022. Individually, guys like Carlos Dunlap, George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, and Willie Gay all saw their respective EPA/pressure production increase dramatically with Jones on the field compare to him off the field.

It's not just the pass rush, though. As we all know, a good pass rush is a secondary's best friend. And while the Chiefs have a very talented secondary, its youth can still leave it susceptible.

"This is a very talented back seven for the Kansas City Chiefs, but they're young and everything is started by Chris Jones up front," ESPN analyst Ryan Clark said on Sportscenter. "Which allows [Chiefs defensive coordinator] Steve Spagnuolo to move those chess pieces on the back end around. So not having Jones is going to help the Lions and it's going to make Spagnuolo have to find ways to create pressures, which also leaves you susceptible on the back end to giving up big plays – which the Detroit Lions will try to attack."

Per SIS, the Chiefs secondary allowed -0.05 EPA/attempt when Jones was on the field and 0.05 when he was off the field. That's a pretty big difference and while the secondary does have another year under its belt, it limits what Steve Spagnuolo can do, to an extent.

A quick example is Spagnuolo's use of nickel and dime packages. Jones is on the field during third downs, but Spags may be inclined to use another pass rusher if Jones isn't on the field, which would prohibit a dime or nickel formation.

And guess what? It doesn't stop there. I know, surprising, right?

The Chiefs run defense averaged -0.14 EPA/attempt with Jones on the field in 2022 and it averaged 0.07 without him. In all, the defense as a whole saw a -0.13 EPA/play drop without Jones on the field in 2022.

The Chiefs have guys that can step in, but no one on the roster can do what Jones does not only for themselves, but for others around them. The Chiefs defense is certainly going to experience some challenges without him and it's going to be interesting to see how they respond to said challenges and how they circumvent what looks to be an impending absence. 

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