It's nearly impossible for an NFL team to go from the bottom to the top without getting it right in the first round of the NFL Draft. In just two years, the Cincinnati Bengals proved how hitting home runs at the very top of the order can change everything. 

When the regular season begins in two weeks, the Bengals will have all four of their first-rounders from 2019-2022 slated to start. From superstars Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, determined veteran Jonah Williams, and uprising youngster Dax Hill, the Bengals have done well with their most valuable resources in the Zac Taylor era.   

2023 first-rounder Myles Murphy may not be joining them in the starting lineup just yet, but the pressure for him to play well reached a whole new level after the report of Joseph Ossai's high ankle sprain surfaced.

Ossai got through just seven snaps of the Bengals' preseason finale against the Washington Commanders before suffering an ankle sprain that could take him out several weeks. The higher up the sprain is, the longer the recovery time usually takes. 

How long Ossai will be out for remains to be seen, but it would surprise nobody if the team placed him on Injured Reserve to free up a roster spot while he recovers for the playoff run. 

That extra spot can be used for any position on the roster, but Ossai's absence will almost certainly mean a larger role for Murphy. It's the logical path forward, but it's not quite a seamless transition.

Ossai doesn't fit the archaic definition of a starter, but he has a strong case for being the Bengals' second-best pass rusher off the edge. He wins in ways that Sam Hubbard athletically cannot; not even Trey Hendrickson has his level of explosion and bend. He may not be reliable enough for 60 snaps a game, but the boost he provides in passing situations is not easily replaceable. 

Enter Murphy, the 21-year old rookie whose current stage of development has clearly revealed itself after a month of training camp and two preseason games. His size, speed, and strength all match the scouting report from Clemson. He's active against the run, and has the length and power to make an impact in that regard. When he times the snap right, he puts pressure on opposing tackles to mirror him around the edge. 

Those are the positives, and they're met with an equal number of concerns. Murphy logged 37 pass-rushing snaps during the preseason. Coincidentally, he was one of 37 rookie edge defenders with that exact number of snaps against the pass. Murphy ranked 27th in pass rush grade (55.7), pass rush win rate (5.6%), and tied for 24th in total pressures (3) according to Pro Football Focus. 

Plenty was left to be desired from Murphy when he got to pin his ears back. He looked disjointed getting off the ball, and his timing was off when attempting to string together moves. He was a non-factor outside of a few quality reps, but for as disappointing as that may seem, it wasn't too surprising.

Murphy's draft profile was chock-full of long-term potential rather than someone who was ready to produce out of the gate. His age combined with promising athletic numbers signified a player with promise, but a lackluster production profile made it clear that his best days were far ahead of him. 

Take a look at how Murphy stacked up in PFF's Stable Metrics during his final two years in college, outlined by Andrew Russell. Producing middling results while boasting ideal youth and athleticism is the simplest explanation as to why the projected top-20 pick nearly fell out of the first round entirely. 

How each of the Bengals first four picks faired since 2021 in PFF Stable Metrics.

There's a reason a lot of the talk is about the 2nd and 3rd round picks. pic.twitter.com/qYLdW4PpGK

— Andrew Russell (@Andrew_Russell7) May 1, 2023

This is not a doomsday piece on Murphy, rather an explanation on what expectations should be for him. He's not ready to produce how convention believes a first-round pick should from the jump. If he were to do so, it would be a very pleasant surprise. 

Time was supposed to be on Murphy's side, but instead of being granted an extended runway to take off properly, he'll be forced into a heavier role in the rotation in order to pick up the slack for Ossai's injury. A conversation about him will ensue if he's playing significant snaps and not producing significant results, and it won't be pretty no matter how much context this writer can provide in this space.

Fortunately for Murphy, he won't be alone in this endeavor. He won't be Ossai's direct replacement because one doesn't exist. Third-year edge Cam Sample was already primed to play more often in the rotation, and Raymond Johnson III may've found his way onto the active roster if Ossai does go to I.R. Johnson could also end up on the practice squad and be elevated for game days. 

Like everything in Lou Anarumo's defense, it will be a group effort to compensate for Ossai missing valuable time. The attention will still fall on Murphy, the first-round pick whose progression needs to hit another gear very soon.   

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