Patriots Mailbag: What needs to happen to consider this a successful season?

Every Friday, I will be releasing a Patriots mailbag, so if you have any questions on all things Patriots and the NFL, feel free to ask. You can tweet @sophieewellerr or reply to the weekly mailbag post on the New England Patriot Fan's Facebook page. Let's get into your questions in this mailbag. Sam Beatty […]

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Every Friday, I will be releasing a Patriots mailbag, so if you have any questions on all things Patriots and the NFL, feel free to ask. You can tweet @sophieewellerr or reply to the weekly mailbag post on the New England Patriot Fan's Facebook page.

Let's get into your questions in this mailbag.

Sam Beatty

What would you say would be some realistic 'must reach' goals for the Patriots this season? Certain record? Playoffs? Standout rookies? Win the division?

I think for the Patriots, the goal after last year is simple: show improvement. They struggled on all sides of the ball, but have made necessary changes during the offseason that could translate really well on the field. All the rookies have the opportunity to be standout stars and New England has a chance to make the playoffs in a wildcard spot. But winning the division is VERY unlikely.

Kristopher Whiteley

What would a solid season stat-wise look for Keion White?

Well, anything above ten sacks is rarified air for a rookie pass rusher. However, pressures are a far more important stat for any pass rusher. People often conflate a high sack total with an elite pass rusher, and while that can be true, there are often more disruptive pass rushers who destroy plays but don't record a sack. After all, it is the actual action of disrupting an offensive play (a pressure) that causes errant throws or mistakes, not the act of bringing the QB to the ground. Sacks can be the result of great coverage, the QB rolling into a sack, etc. but that type of sack is far less valuable than having a dominant pass rusher who is beating blocks and putting the QB under duress on every snap.

For example, LB Matthew Judon's best game last season in terms of sack total was not his best pass-rushing game. The most sacks he recorded in a game was three, against the Chicago Bears. His best game in terms of the most "pressures" was tied between the Cardinals, Jets, and Lions games. He pressured the QB seven times in each of those three games but did not have more than two sacks in any of those three games. The Patriots won all three of those games too.

Now that we have established a baseline, the record for the most pressures by a rookie pass rusher belongs to Nick Bosa (2019), who finished with nine sacks, according to PFF. White faces a bit of an uphill battle to become an immediate contributor, given the names ahead of him, but he looked incredible in the preseason. There is more to being an edge rusher than just rushing the passer, but if he can avoid being a liability against the run and find some success as a pass rusher, that would be a net positive in my eyes. Considering his snap share (I anticipate he'll be on the field for 30-40% of total defensive snaps), I would say anything around 36 pressures and five sacks would be an impressive season for him. Anything above that would be incredible. – Tanner James

Derek Clark

Will they retire the TB 12 jersey on opening day this season?

While we know the ceremony for Tom Brady is going to happen at halftime, the details of what it exactly will be are unknown. However, I do think it is quite likely that No. 12 will be retired at Gillette Stadium to start the 2023 season.

Michael Quirion

Is Keion going to start? If not will he have a crucial role?

I answered this question in depth above; I believe it should offer some clarity. In terms of a "role," he primarily played as a 4i-tech for Georgia Tech. I think he performed well there, especially given his frame, but I believe they left some untapped potential in terms of his usage. I do think he has the athletic versatility to line up all along the defensive line. I expect him to have a role similar to Deatrich Wise but with a higher athletic upside, making him a potential mismatch problem.

Who does Gonzo get matched up with?

I'm not sure Gonzalez is at the stage where the team is going to leave him on an island against the opposing team's best player. Teams are always trying to play their best matchups, and having a corner who can erase a receiver or take away one side of the field is a major asset. Can he be that from day one? I'm not certain; we saw Sauce Gardner do that, but that is very uncommon. He did look more comfortable in man coverage throughout the preseason, and if they go heavy cover one against the Eagles (see Brett Kollmann's tweet), that may suit his strengths better. I would imagine he'll be all over the field, just getting used to NFL speeds. It's an incredibly tall task to have to defend AJ Brown or Devonta Smith in your first NFL game. He'll likely be isolated against one or the other at some point, but I would expect some growing pains. – Tanner James

Do we run-man defense where the Eagles have struggled against?

I do think the Patriots drafted Gonzalez with hopes of returning to more man coverage. Time will tell their defensive plan, but in general, wouldn't be shocked to see more man coverage in 2023. – Tanner James

Ian McCulloch

Will Marcus Jones get more offensive reps?

Marcus Jones could potentially see a few offensive reps this season, but he will be primarily used on defense. He has spent all of the preseason with the defense and considering all the weapons the Patriots have brought in this offseason, they have a lot of depth at the receiver position.

David Polakiw

Do you think Elliot is going to play this Sunday or just Stevenson?

I think Ezekiel Elliott will definitely play on Sunday and it will provide the first glimpse at how the offense plans to use both him and Rhamondre Stevenson together.

David Litcher

Will Mac be the starter all season?

Yes. Jones very clearly won the quarterback competition during the preseason and the only question remaining is who will serve as his backup.

Kevin Duplisea

Thoughts on the Patriots making the playoffs?

The Patriots could potentially make the playoffs in a wildcard spot, but they will have to fight very hard to get there. The AFC East is composed of insanely good offensive teams, with Aaron Rodgers joining the division. And the AFC as a whole is also very competitive. It's an uphill battle, but there is a chance they can prove the doubters wrong.

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