Texans: How much would a trade for Lamar Jackson actually cost?
Forget everything that you've heard about the non-exclusive franchise tag, offer sheets, and so on. On Monday, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson revealed he requested a trade earlier in March. The news is significant for every quarterback-needy team, like the Houston Texans, because it likely means the quarterback wants out of Baltimore. In essence, it […]
Forget everything that you've heard about the non-exclusive franchise tag, offer sheets, and so on. On Monday, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson revealed he requested a trade earlier in March.
The news is significant for every quarterback-needy team, like the Houston Texans, because it likely means the quarterback wants out of Baltimore.
In essence, it makes trading for him a much more realistic possibility since teams are less afraid of a straight-up exchange as opposed to making an offer that the Ravens can match right away no questions asked thanks to the tag.
But all of the hype surrounding the latest news about the MVP-winning quarterback begs the question: How much would the Texans have to give up to land Lamar?
Let's dive in. The best way to go about things is to look at other big-name quarterback trades in the NFL.
What better place to start than the trade many Texans fans are already significantly familiar with? That's right, let's look at what the Cleveland Browns gave up to land Deshaun Watson.
In last year's trade, here's what both parties gave up:
Texans received:
- 2022 first-round pick
- 2023 first-round pick
- 2024 first-round pick
- 2023 third-round pick
- 2024 fourth-round pick
Browns received:
- QB Deshaun Watson
- 2024 fourth-round pick
For those of you keeping score at home, let's keep thins simple. Let's cancel out the fourth-round swap and call it a trade of three first-rounders and one third-rounder.
What about Russell Wilson?
You can do something similar with the Denver Broncos trade. The Seattle Seahawks received two first-round picks and two second-round picks plus three players. There was also a "swap" involving Day 3 draft picks.
As you can see, two first-round picks seems to be just the starting point. It's what teams must quickly say in the phone before the Ravens hang up. But teams will have to add more to keep the conversation alive.
So let's play general manager here. What can we put together in a trade to get Lamar to Houston?
Trade proposal for Lamar Jackson
The way I see it (and for simplicity's sake), the Texans received three first-round picks and a third for Watson. And the Seahawks received two first-rounders and two second-rounders for Wilson.
If we're to follow this logic, the Texans would be looking at a trade involving more than two first-rounders. I'd bet at least three plus a little extra on top. Jackson, after all, is a 26-year-old quarterback with an MVP on his resume.
He's established himself as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league even though the Ravens have been the second-lowest spending team at wide receiver over the past three years (in offseason moves).
If I were running the Texans, below is the proposal I'd send the Ravens' front office. Keep in mind we're approaching this whole thing with an aggressive mindset that considers Baltimore is aiming to keep Jackson:
- First-round pick 2023 (#2)
- First-round pick 2023 (#12)
- First-round pick 2024 (Proj. #2)
- Second-round pick 2024 (Proj. #34)
- Third-round pick 2023 (#73)
Before you get up in arms about the Texans hypothetically giving up too much, this is where my offer comes from: Two Top-15 picks in this year's draft, including the second overall selection, is exactly what would make Houston jump off the page among other trade candidates.
Including both could be enticing enough for the Ravens to feel more comfortable moving on.
What's great about this for Houston is they'd still have a second-round pick in 2023 and a first and second in 2024.
No one can offer that type of value for Lamar and still have as much capital as they.
Is it a massive offer? Yes, of course. But Lamar Jackson is a proven quarterback who could change the fate of the franchise. He's worthy of a massive offer.
It's a unique opportunity and significantly different from drafting a quarterback in the first round. If Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence were on the board, I could see wanting to wait to get a rookie quarterback.
But at least in 2023, the Texans would be forced to roll the dice on a prospect with several question marks. Whether it's Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud (or somebody else), the Texans will be making a risky bet.
Lamar simply doesn't seem as risky. To me, any QB-needy team in the league should be trying to get him.
*Note: We'll skip the financial details of the contract the team would have to sign Lamar Jackson to. The main reason behind this is the Texans are one of the teams with the most cap space over the next four years. As long as they have the cash, they're one of the natural favorites to pull something like this off.