Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase projected to lead all receivers in target share
Joe Burrow drops back to pass, and he looks for Ja'Marr Chase. It's rarely a bad strategy for the Cincinnati Bengals offense. Hell, it's worked for longer than the two have been in the NFL. Including the two years they played together at LSU, Burrow and Chase have connected over 300 times, and that's just […]
Joe Burrow drops back to pass, and he looks for Ja'Marr Chase. It's rarely a bad strategy for the Cincinnati Bengals offense. Hell, it's worked for longer than the two have been in the NFL.
Including the two years they played together at LSU, Burrow and Chase have connected over 300 times, and that's just during games. Their Summer of 10,000 passes in 2019 set the extremely high bar for their conjoined success, and established a connection that is uncommon in today's game.
Such connection results in ample opportunities for the 23-year old receiver to take over games, and that's the expectation for the 2023 season.
Data scientist Tej Seth of SumerSports, an NFL analytics company, projects that Chase will lead all receivers in target share this year with a clip of 26.4%. That's a full percent higher than Cooper Kupp's projection.
26.4% is a larger percentage than you think it is. Not even when Chase broke out as a rookie did he have that many balls thrown his way relative to Burrow's total amount of passes. Chase incurred 24.2% of Burrow's targets that year.
The projection definitely has merit to it. Before missing three games with a hip injury, Chase was leading the Bengals in target share at just over 27%. This was during a period of fluctuating results for the offense as well.
Chase's absence allowed for Tee Higgins to catch up in terms of production, and when Chase finally returned in Week 13, the status quo reverted back to the former fifth-overall pick. Chase was the recipient of over 30% of Burrow's targets from Week 13 until the end of the Bengals' season in the AFC Championship game.
30% feels way to high to be sustainable, especially in the name of predictability. Higgins is just as worthy of a high target share, and Tyler Boyd complements both of them wonderfully. But Chase is the No. 1 for a reason. He's literally Uno.
The standard in which Chase has set in just two years is almost unparalleled, and there's nothing to stop him from to continuing to exceed it year in and year out.
Featured image via Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
