NFL analyst makes bold prediction for Steelers offense in 2023
While some are hesitant to believe the Pittsburgh Steelers will undergo an offensive evolution this fall, others are optimistic. Time will tell if Kenny Pickett has truly developed, if O.C. Matt Canada has changed his ways, and if the receiver corps is over-underrated. But according to Mina Kimes of ESPN, she has a sense that […]
While some are hesitant to believe the Pittsburgh Steelers will undergo an offensive evolution this fall, others are optimistic.
Time will tell if Kenny Pickett has truly developed, if O.C. Matt Canada has changed his ways, and if the receiver corps is over-underrated.
But according to Mina Kimes of ESPN, she has a sense that things may go a particular direction in 2023:
Usually found all over the airways on the worldwide leader, Mina stopped by The Athletic Football Show to go over some 2023 offensive and defensive predictions with hosts Robert Mays and Nate Tice. Here is what she had to say when asked about her perception of the Steelers' offense:
"In the second half of the season, I thought Kenny Pickett played well. I like the wide receiver group, and like the changes and upgrades they made on the offensive line," said Kimes. "I love the Darnell Washington draft pick, I love him for them and I wouldn't be surprised if they've finish between the eight to 12 range in DVOA and take people by surprise."
"They were like a top three offense in DVOA down the stretch in the second half," added Robert Mays."
Before we dive into the opinion, let's break down DVOA and why it's so important. A metric started by Football Outsiders to go beyond the elementary stats, here's how DVOA is defined:
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent.
Simply put, DVOA adds meaning to offensive stats. How many times have you heard the term "garbage time" when referring to teams adding points and yards after the game is well out of reach?
Suddenly you look up and a game that was a 21-point blowout in the early fourth quarter is now only a nine-point loss, with the losing quarterback throwing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. While the box score may light up for that team/player the DVOA won't.
So to summarize, Kimes believes that the Steelers can effectively be a top-10 offense in 2023, if not close to it. They have the pieces in place, the momentum of last season, and the first true offseason for their quarterback.
Now it's time to execute.
Featured image via: © Michael Longo/For USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
