Jahmyr Gibbs may have been a polarizing player for the Detroit Lions in the 2023 NFL Draft based on his position, but the one thing that most people can agree on is that Gibbs is going to be a good back in the NFL.

That's the thing with running backs; it isn't hard to find talent, especially in the first round. The difficulty with the position comes from balancing value relative to cost.

However, cost shouldn't really be a focus for the Lions and Gibbs right now due to his rookie deal. The only thing either side should focus on right now is how much Gibbs will help this offense in 2023.

The great news for Gibbs and Lions fans is that the rookie running back out of Alabama figures to be a big part of a team that has its sights set beyond simply making the playoffs.

To get a good gauge for Gibbs and what he will do, one has to look at his best comparison. For many, that comparison is Saints running back and Pro Bowler Alvin Kamara.

This is a good comparison to get as a rookie.

While there is still some speculation up in the air as to exactly how the splits will fall with this running back room, a look back at Alvin Kamara's rookie season and a look at the running back splits last season paint an exciting picture for Lions fans.

First things first, volume matters for running backs that want to make a name for themselves. For Gibbs, expect to see the rookie with something in the neighborhood of 140 rushing attempts as the best place to start.

Kamara had 120 rushing attempts as a rookie, but he started the season deeper on the depth chart than Gibbs. Gibbs should be the RB2 behind David Montgomery for the start of the season, and the RB2 in Detroit had 99 rushing attempts last season. Assuming the Lions liked Gibbs enough to draft him as early as they did and weren't completely reaching, 41 more rushes than 2022 D'Andre Swift seems like a decent guess.

On the other end, Kamara put together one of the most improbable rookie performances in a long time with his additional 81 touches through the air (100 targets) brining his total touch share up to 201 on the season.

Assuming you bring Gibbs back a little due to the impressive nature of that season for Kamara and add in a few more on the ground for a rookie that is seen as a better runner coming into the league, Detroit's first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft should finish the year with around 210 touches overall.

So, what will that lead to?

A lot goes into projecting effectiveness on the ground, but putting Gibbs just over Swift as a runner and just under Kamara as a receiver seems like a good place to start. 

At 5.0 yards per rushing attempt and 8.0 yards per reception on 210 touches, Jahmyr Gibbs is in a good position as a rookie to post 700 yards on the ground and 560 yards through the air.

Some of these are conservative guesses, but based on what we have seen from similar players over the past few years and this offense, this line is entirely on the table for the rookie (as is breaking it), and the Lions should benefit greatly from such a presence in their backfield.