Cowboys' simple stat shows how offense will take major step forward in 2023
Hand in hand with Dak Prescott's high number of interceptions during the 2022 NFL season, any analysis of the Dallas Cowboys offense has to consider one thing: The team asked a lot from its franchise quarterback. Consistently, Prescott was asked to bail out the offense's conservative play-calling in third-and-long situations. While Kellen Moore did a […]
Hand in hand with Dak Prescott's high number of interceptions during the 2022 NFL season, any analysis of the Dallas Cowboys offense has to consider one thing: The team asked a lot from its franchise quarterback.
Consistently, Prescott was asked to bail out the offense's conservative play-calling in third-and-long situations. While Kellen Moore did a lot of good as offensive coordinator, he also leaned heavily in the run on early downs despite the team's lack of success while doing it. That led to unfriendly situations on third down and forced shots.
What made matters even worse for Prescott was that the wide receiver unit beyond CeeDee Lamb wasn't particularly helpful. That isn't to say that Dak should go without blame but at many times, receivers made the wrong decisions, failed to fight for the football, or even struggled to generate separation.
In a recent article, Around the NFL writer Nick Shook used data from Next Gen Stats to rank the 10 best deep passers in the league. Prescott ranked fourth on the list in big part to his "ability to overcome disadvantages on deep throws."
Perhaps the most revealing number in the analysis made by Shook is a simple stat that tells the story of the wide receiver room: "(Prescott) was still highly productive despite having just one pass-catcher (CeeDee Lamb) log more than two deep catches last season.
Only CeeDee was able to catch more than two deep passes from Prescott last year!
Next Gen Stats takes into account all kinds of data points to calculate what's every throw's "expected completion percentage." It considers separation, down and distance, yards downfield, wind, etc.
Using that insight, Shook argues that the Cowboys didn't give Prescott a whole lot of downfield opportunities:
If you need one metric that illustrates a lack of downfield effectiveness from Dallas' passing game as a whole, look at Prescott's expected completion percentage on deep attempts, which fell short of 30. This suggests the Cowboys' lack of firepower helped opposing defenses limit Dallas' downfield opportunities.
Out of the 10 quarterbacks listed in Shook's article, Dak owned the third-highest CPOE (completion percentage over expected). On top of that, Prescott finished the season with the ninth-highest NFL passer rating in deep passes among qualifying quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
How Cowboys will give Dak Prescott better shots in 2023
This is where WR Brandin Cooks comes in. Everyone who witnessed an offseason practice this summer seemed to agree on one thing: Cooks is freaking fast.
It's something we already knew but the veteran has backed up his reputation with a strong showing in OTAs and minicamp. He's a playmaker that can use his speed and refined route-running to beat defenses in the deep game.
The recently traded-for player will likely be lining up next to CeeDee Lamb in the majority of the snaps. While many (including myself) have pointed out that Cooks will take the pressure off of Lamb as the latter works from the slot, I'm equally as excited about Cooks facing one-on-one opportunities to use his speed in the vertical game.
The former Houston Texan should prove to be one of the best big-play threats Prescott has ever worked with. Expect much more (and better) downfield opportunities in 2023 thanks to his presence.
Featured image via Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
