The NFL is supposed to be built on parity. Teams that finish poorly get top pick in the draft to get better. Every team has the same salary cap and schedules are created to keep weak teams from playing all the strong teams every year. 

It is because of this parity, that we have not seen a division where all four teams finish above .500 in a single season. We came close a few times including 2002 when the AFC West had two teams finish at .500 and the AFC East had three teams at 9-7 and one (the Bills) at 8-8.

Prior to the 2021 season, the NFL expanded its regular season from a 17 week/16 games schedule to an 18 week/17 game schedule. Before this, all four teams would have to finish at least 9-7 to be above .500. Now with the extra game, it is more likely for all four teams to get that one extra win with an odd number of games.

We almost got our first dose of an entire division finishing above .500 last season with NFC East, but a tie between the Giants and Commanders in week 13 left Washington with an 8-8-1 record keeping them at .500 for the season.

The idea of one entire division having four teams that are good enough to win their out of conference games and be good enough to essentially split their intra-divisional matchups is not so crazy for the 2023 season. One division that might be up to the task is the AFC East. 

Buffalo Bills

In the post Tom Brady era, the AFC East belongs to the Bills until one of the other teams are able to prove otherwise. The Bills have won the division the last 3 years running and have not shown any signs of slowing down. The Bills are not only the gold standard in the AFC East, but they are arguably the most talented team in the AFC and even in the NFL.

Last season the Bills finished 13-3 and were able to dismantle the struggling Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card round.

The Bills lost a little more than they gained this offseason. On defense the Bills lost two of their most important leaders. Two-time Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds left for Chicago and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is taking a year off from coaching.

The Bills were able to re-sign safety Jordan Poyer, who is essentially Buffalo’s version of Devin McCourty. They managed to steal running back Damien Harris away from the rival Patriots and added some more pieces to the high-octane offense in the draft with tight end Dalton Kincaid and guard O’Cyrus Torrence. 

Barring a severe injury to Josh Allen (Madden curses aside), it feels like a certainty that the Bills will make the playoffs and finish above .500 for a fifth consecutive year.

New York Jets

The current streak the New York Jets hold in missing the playoffs has been much discussed as the Sacramento Kings in the NBA ended their drought this year leaving the Jets as the sports franchise with the longest playoff drought. The Jets not only have missed the playoffs for 12 straight years, the have only finished above .500 once in that period of time. 

It’s amazing what a hall of fame QB can do to a team’s expectations. 

Now loaded with the reigning offensive and defensive rookies of the year, a top tier defense led by all-pro Quinnen Williams and now future first ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Jets not only looked poised to end their playoff drought, but above .500 seems like a small step to their season.

The Jets watched some of their depth at defensive tackle leave via free agency but brought in stout run stopper Al Woods and pass rush specialist Quinton Jefferson. Braxton Barrios jumped from the Jets to the Dolphins but the Jets retooled at wide receiver by adding Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Mecole Hardman to go along with OROY Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis. 

In the end, the Jets will fly as high as Aaron Rodgers takes them. Rodgers is only one season removed from his fourth MVP and second in a row. He is 39-years-old and if his play takes the dreaded leap off the cliff, the Jets might never get off the ground.

Miami Dolphins

The 2022 Dolphins is a tale of two teams. The one with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and one without him. 

The Dolphins have finished above .500 each of the last 3 seasons but only made the playoffs once in that time. Last year they finished 9-8 after plummeting down the stretch losing five of their last six games and being ousted in the first round of the playoffs by the Bills.

This off season, the Dolphins resigned both Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert to their running back room and reports are that they are eyeing newly released Dalvin Cook. Miami lost starting tight end Mike Gesicki to the rival Patriots.

Miami’s defense should be much improved after trading for star cornerback Jalen Ramsey to pair with Xavien Howard giving Miami arguably the best corner duo in the NFL. Miami’s pass rush will benefit from a full season with Bradley Chubb, who they traded for midseason and newly arrived defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

The Dolphins are one of the most talented teams on paper going into the 2023 season. Mike McDaniel is in his second year of being a head coach and looks like he could be the next in a wave of young, smart and creative coaches to take the helm of an NFL team. 

The wide receiver group is the most dangerous part of this team. With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and newly signed Robbie Chosen Anderson, teams will have a hard time slowing down this offense.

Tua’s injury history is the dark cloud hanging over this team. After suffering severe concussions last year that left him considering walking away from the game, Miami’s offense could turn out to be a Lamborghini with no gas in the tank if Tua can’t stay on the field. 

The Dolphins did sign exciting backup QB Mike White in the event Tua has trouble staying on the field, but Mike White has an injury history of his own. 

Bottom line is if the Dolphins can protect their fragile quarterbacks, they should speed right past .500 on their way to the post season.

New England Patriots

Here comes the hard case. Most experts and talking heads have the Patriots finishing last in the division, a fact the rest of the AFC East is relishing after two decades of utter domination. While on paper, the Patriots should be the fourth best team in the division, that doesn’t mean they can’t finish 9-8.

Last season the Patriots hovered around .500 all season finishing 8-9. The offense struggled most of the season, failing to have a true identity scoring 21.4 points per game.

This off season the Patriots got Mac Jones something he did not have last year: and offensive coordinator. The Patriots lured former Belichick disciple away from Alabama and back to the NFL and New England to help return Mac Jones to his rookie self.

New England went bargain shopping and brought in some nice pieces around Mac Jones to make his life easier. The Patriots brought Mike Gesicki over from the Patriots to pair with Hunter Henry to give themselves a nice 1-2 punch at tight end.

Juju Smith-Schuster is arguably the best wide receiver the Patriots have had since Julian Edelman. If Tyquan Thornton reaches his potential that they saw when they drafted him in the 2nd round, alongside Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker, the Patriots offense will be no push over.

Rhamondre Stevenson has the potential to be a top tier RB this year after showing brilliant flashes last season.

The New England defense should be well above average adding one of the top DB’s in the class in Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon in the first round to go along with pass rush specialist Matthew Judon.

If Mac Jones can return to his rookie form with a real OC and Belichick works his magic on a defense of mostly no names, 9-8 is a definite possibility.

Featured Image via USA Today