Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy might be lying about the team's strategy
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has pounded the table multiple times on what he says will be one of his goals as the team's new play-caller: He wants the Cowboys to run the damn football. "Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up but I want him to run the damn ball so I can rest […]
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has pounded the table multiple times on what he says will be one of his goals as the team's new play-caller: He wants the Cowboys to run the damn football.
"Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up but I want him to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense," McCarthy said in a press conference earlier this year following Kellen Moore's departure.
In a way, that statement has become a recurring theme for the Cowboys' offseason. For one thing, it's controversial. While conventional football wisdom would suggest McCarthy has a point, data suggests scoring points should be a priority and that "defensive rest" has no number-backed evidence of existing.
But while McCarthy has insisted that he's aiming for the Cowboys to become a team that takes fewer risks and runs the football more, I'm here to say: I don't buy it.
I just don't. In fact, I believe the 2023 Cowboys will be pass-happier than they've been over the last few years.
And here's why: McCarthy's previous years as a play-caller featured a heavy dose of early down passing.
RBSDM.com does a great job keeping track of every team's "pass aggressiveness." The term is defined as a team's early-down passing rate in neutral situations. In other words, it tracks how often a team throws the football when the score, clock, and down aren't dictating the action.
In McCarthy's years as a play-caller with the Green Bay Packers, here's where his teams ranked in pass-aggressiveness (McCarthy didn't call plays in 2015):
- 2010-2014 Packers: #2 in the NFL
- 2015-2018 Packers: #1
They say actions speak louder than words. And McCarthy's track record as a play-caller leaves no doubt: He loves to throw the football. This should be seen as a positive for the Cowboys since it could translate into the team facing fewer third-and-long situations.
What about Kellen Moore's Cowboys' passing habits?
While McCarthy's quote from earlier in the year would have anyone thinking Moore called pass plays like crazy, the Cowboys have not been as aggressive with him leading the way.
In the last couple of seasons, the offense ranked 15th in pass aggressiveness.
The offense is about to undergo several changes. But make no mistake about it, McCarthy might be lying to us when talking about him wanting to run the football and play old-school offense.
In fact, the numbers suggest he'll throw more often.
Featured image via Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports