How Jaguars can receive a boost from plain old luck in 2023
"There's no such thing as luck," is what many people say. I bet those people didn't keep track of an obscure stat of the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2023 NFL season: Their fumble luck. To be fair, I'm betting the overwhelming majority of Jaguars fans, even the die-hards, didn't. But that's quite alright because I've got you […]
"There's no such thing as luck," is what many people say. I bet those people didn't keep track of an obscure stat of the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2023 NFL season: Their fumble luck.
To be fair, I'm betting the overwhelming majority of Jaguars fans, even the die-hards, didn't. But that's quite alright because I've got you covered, my friends. But first, let me explain why such a stat matters in the first place before you roll your eyes at my words and close this tab.
Fumbles and fumbles lost are wildly unpredictable in the NFL. And you know they are, too. After all, a football will bounce to one place or another depending on its angle, speed, and even the ground itself. Some bounces will favor the offense and some others will favor the defense.
And yes, chances are, for the most part, things will even out in the long run. But not for the 2023 Jaguars, who finished dead last in the NFL in fumble recovery rate on offense.
Out of 18 fumbles in the regular season, the Jags lost 13 and recovered just five. In percentage points, they recovered 27.8% of their fumbles while losing 72.2%. The split was made slightly worse including the playoffs.
Note: All numbers on fumble luck were retrieved from RBSDM.com.
Of course, in a way, the Jaguars can control their own luck by not fumbling in the first place. But their 18 fumbles ranked 13th in the NFL, which was around league average. The man who could and should go a long way into improving that?
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
His 12 fumbles in the regular season were the fourth most in the NFL trailing Justin Fields, Matt Ryan, and Josh Allen.
Fingers Crossed: Jaguars defense is a different story
Conversely, Jacksonville's defense should hope its luck goes unchanged. Theirs is a very different story as they recovered 63.2% of the opponents' fumbles (13-of-19), the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
The Jaguars' playmakers deserve some credit, however, as they forced 17 fumbles, tied for fourth-best in the league.
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Featured image via Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
