Bengals Draft: Which position runs will occur before 28th pick
We're two days away from the NFL Draft, and we still don't know a damn thing. The very top of the first round is completely up in the air, more than it's been in recent years. Bryce Young is expected to go first overall to the Carolina Panthers, but now Will Levis is gaining steam […]
We're two days away from the NFL Draft, and we still don't know a damn thing.
The very top of the first round is completely up in the air, more than it's been in recent years. Bryce Young is expected to go first overall to the Carolina Panthers, but now Will Levis is gaining steam either in the biggest smokescreen of all time, or something truly unbelievable.
Needless to say, if we don't have a grasp on the first handful of picks, we sure don't know who's going to be there at the end of the first round. The Cincinnati Bengals will be hoping for runs at certain positions, and minimal prospects taken at others.
Every draft class is unique, but certain trends seem to be notable over time as we revert to the law of averages. A strong class at one spot last year could be weak the next, but on average, a similar amount of players from the position are picked in a given range.
The positions to watch for the Bengals this year are as follows: cornerback, defensive line, tackle, running back, and tight end. The desire for premium positions will push the latter two down the pecking order into Day 2 and early Day 3 range while Cincinnati's war room will hope and pray for a pass defender, pass rusher, or pass blocker will fall to them at 28th overall.
We can't predict which players exactly will remain when the Bengals get on the clock, but we can guesstimate how many at each position will have already been taken. And that's useful if you feel good about the consensus board.
I went back and looked at the last 10 drafts to see how many how many players at all five positions were drafted before pick No. 28, and listed years where the most were picked in the timeframe. Here are the results:
| Position | Average | Peak (Years) |
|---|---|---|
Cornerback | 3.6 | 5 (2016, 2017) |
Defensive Lineman | 4.6 | 9 (2019) |
Tackle | 3.8 | 5 (2013, 2020, 2022) |
Tight End | 0.8 | 2 (2017, 2019) |
Running Back | 1 | 2 (2015, 2017, 2018, 2021) |
The 30,000 foot takeaway here is that about five pass-rushers, five cornerbacks, and four tackles will already be off the board when the Bengals are sending in their pick. But it can go a bit deeper than that.
Defensive linemen obviously encompasses both edge defenders and interior defenders, and tackles are just one specific position along the offensive line. The Bengals just happen to be in the market for multiple kinds of d-linemen, but will specifically look at tackles on the other side of the ball.
The other two positions, as expected, are way less frequent. Two of the last three drafts saw neither a running back or tight end go in the first round. The trend is clearly negative when looking at both positions, but this year might tip the scales back towards the middle.
How do these averages compare to what the consensus believes? Grinding The Mocks, ran by Benjamin Robinson, looks at over 2,000(!) mock drafts to generate an Expected Draft Position (EPD) board. The board features four cornerbacks, seven defensive linemen, four tackles, two tight ends, and one running back with an EDP average higher than 28. That's pretty damn close to the 10-year average we discovered, with a slight lean towards the defensive line.
| Player | Position | School | EDP |
|---|---|---|---|
Will Anderson | DL1 | Alabama | 3.3 |
Tyree Wilson | DL1 | Texas Tech | 4.7 |
Jalen Carter | DL3 | Georgia | 5.9 |
Devon Witherspoon | CB1 | Illinois | 7.9 |
Paris Johnson Jr. | T1 | Ohio State | 10.4 |
Christian Gonzalez | CB2 | Oregon | 10.6 |
Peter Skoronski | T2 | Northwestern | 11.2 |
Nolan Smith | DL4 | Georgia | 13.5 |
Bijan Robinson | RB1 | Texas | 14.9 |
Darnell Wright | T3 | Tennessee | 16.3 |
Lukas Van Ness | DL5 | Iowa | 16.3 |
Broderick Jones | T4 | Georgia | 16.7 |
Joey Porter Jr. | CB3 | Penn State | 17 |
Myles Murphy | DL6 | Clemson | 20.9 |
Dalton Kincaid | TE1 | Utah | 21.9 |
Deonte Banks | CB4 | Maryland | 23.2 |
Michael Mayer | TE2 | Notre Dame | 23.4 |
Calijah Kancey | DL7 | Pitt | 27.4 |
Grinding The Mocks
Where this draft could differ is at cornerback. Emmanuel Forbes is a great example of someone still ranked on the cusp of the first round by the consensus, but feels like a lock to go in the top-25 picks now. He would likely make it five cornerbacks gone before the Bengals turn their pick in, which could make defensive line be the position where an unexpected faller happens.
All of these factors are being discussed within the walls of Paycor Stadium this week. The Bengals have an idea of who will be available to them, and alternative pivots are being ironed out before Thursday night arrives. We'll see if history is on their side.
