The Dallas Cowboys put an end to their regular season in one of the toughest games to bet of the year. On the one hand, starters are unlikely to play the full game if the Philadelphia Eagles get an early big lead against the New York Giants.

On the other, they still need the win and the Washington Commanders might not be playing at full strength either after being eliminated from the playoffs. So what's the best bet to make? Let's dive in.

This season we're 13-3 (!!!) betting Cowboys' games in this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys. 

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110)
• Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -300 / WAS Commanders +250
• Total: 40

The public isn't afraid of a large number

Per Action Network, 53% of the bets are on Dallas.

The Commanders' change at QB for rookie Sam Howell pushed this line to a touchdown which is an uncomfortable spot on the road and without much motivation to win. As previously indicated, Dallas remains alive in the NFC East, and even the No. 1 seed but the scoreboards around the league might not favor them by halftime.

Trends

• The Cowboys are 1-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games in January.
• Over is 5-1 in the Cowboys' last six games overall.
• The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC East opponents.

The pick: We can't overlook the Commanders' situation

NFL teams that are eliminated are immediately motivated to rest banged-up starters. Consider Washington's current situation as they've ruled out multiple starters including DT Jonathan Allen, CB Benjamin St.-Juste, and OT Cornelius Lucas, among many others. Key defensive pieces DB Kam Curl and LB Jamin Davis remain questionable.

To make matters worse for the Commanders, Brian Robinson (OUT) and Antonio Gibson (IR) won't be playing alongside rookie QB Sam Howell.

The Cowboys should outclass the Commanders for as long as they want to play to win with starters. To keep it safe, give me the first-half betting spread to avoid any sort of backdoor cover.

The bet: COWBOYS 1H -4

Season bets: 13-3

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via Covers

Featured image via Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports