Two reasons why the Nashville Predators might be heating up
The Nashville Predators won their third straight game last night in Washington and, for the first time in a long time, are in striking distance of a playoff spot. In fact, if the Preds were to beat the Ottawa Senators on Monday, and the Oilers were to lose to the Avalanche, Nashville would take over […]
The Nashville Predators won their third straight game last night in Washington and, for the first time in a long time, are in striking distance of a playoff spot.
In fact, if the Preds were to beat the Ottawa Senators on Monday, and the Oilers were to lose to the Avalanche, Nashville would take over the 2nd Wild Card position in the Western Conference.
Raise your hand if you thought that was even possible a month ago.
But are the Predators really finding a groove in their game? Are they actually heating up? Or is this a fluke?
Here's a quick analysis.
Comparing the Preds to everyone else
The NHL is a fluid sport and a fluid league. Streaks come and go, teams build and lose momentum, players find and lose their game.
If you compare the Preds to the NHL from opening day to now, you won't find anything impressive. Nashville still ranks at the bottom of the league in offense (27th in goals/game) and at the middle of the pack in defense (15th in goals allowed/game). Their power play is still bad (28th) and their penalty kill isn't good enough to save them (15th).
But if you compare the Preds to the NHL since December 19th, a different trend emerges. Since that date, the Preds rank 4th in offense (4.00 goals per game), 11th in defense (2.78 goals/game), 1st in power play (33%), and 8th in penalty kill (86%).
That's a pretty dramatic difference, especially on offense.
And even the underlying numbers are pretty good with their attacking play. The Preds sit at the top of the league in a number of important metrics. They are 4th in shot attempts for per sixty minutes (63.5 CF/60), 2nd in expected goals for per sixty minutes (3.46 xGF/60), and they've been shooting just over 10% in that span.
But why December 19th? What's special about that date?
Two players returning to lineup for Preds
The biggest change on December 19th was the addition of Tommy Novak to the lineup.
You might recall that on December 11th, two things happened that shook up the team: Eeli Tolvanen was waived and Michael McCarron entered into the NHL's player assistance program.
As a consequence, Tommy Novak was recalled from Milwaukee, where he was leading the Admirals in points. Novak entered into the lineup, playing with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund. He's since been moved down in the lineup, most recently playing with Tanner Jeannot and Yakov Trenin (the NERD line? ehh, maybe not), but he's been extremely effective at producing offense since his arrival.
Since December 19th, Novak ranks 2nd on the team in on-ice shot attempts, 4th in on-ice expected goals, and 4th in on-ice high danger chances. He's collected seven points (four goals, three assists) in nine games.
Novak had a flash of success with the 2021-22 Nashville Predators, scoring seven points in 27 games, but was added to the COVID-19 list and then never returned to the lineup.
His ability to create plays in the middle of the ice with speed, plus his puck skills and knack for finding good shooting angles, give him an offensive advantage over other forwards on the team.
Novak has been a huge addition to the Preds over the last nine games, and he likely will not be headed back to Milwaukee this season.
The other addition to the Preds around this same time was Ryan McDonagh. After McDonagh was hit in the face with a puck on December 2nd, he was expected to miss significant time. He ended up missing seven games, returning to the lineup on December 21st against the Blackhawks.
While the defense for the Preds has not been perfect since that date (Juuse Saros can tell you all about that), McDonagh's presence in the lineup should not be ignored. Prior to his injury, the Nashville blueline was starting to figure things out and consistent pairs were starting to emerge.
Stability and consistency on the backend is crucial for this team. Under John Hynes' system, the defensemen must remain steady while the forwards generate the attack on their own. Remember that unlike Preds teams of the past, this team does not rely on defensemen to generate a ton of offense (with the exception being Roman Josi). Instead the Preds' defense is focused on preventing odd-man rushes and keeping advancing forwards to the outside, maintaining a solid structure and regrouping with efficiency.
Of course, then there's goals like this from Ryan McDonagh that make you wonder if the defensemen should be doing more on offense:
But since McDonagh's return to the lineup, the Preds have been able to mostly control opposing forwards, limiting the attacking players to weak shots from the outside (again… except for that one game in Carolina).
With Tommy Novak firmly installed in the offensive game plan, and with Ryan McDonagh back in the lineup to provide a solid foundation on the back end, the Nashville Predators have been one of the best teams in the league over the last nine games. Time will tell whether it's a larger trend or just a midseason fad, but considering how poorly the first two months of the season went, this is a good sign of things to come.
— Featured image via Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports —
