What the Packers have to do to play meaningful games in December
The loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was costly for the Green Bay Packers playoff hopes. The team had a 22% chance of getting to the postseason before the game on Sunday. After losing, the chances went down to just 9%. However, considering how the NFC wild card race looked better last year, they are still […]
The loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was costly for the Green Bay Packers playoff hopes. The team had a 22% chance of getting to the postseason before the game on Sunday. After losing, the chances went down to just 9%. However, considering how the NFC wild card race looked better last year, they are still better than they were a year ago, when they also started the season with a 3-6 record.
After nine games in 2022, the Packers had between 5% and 7% chance of making the playoffs depending on the analytics tool. The situation was slightly different because their bye week didn't come until week 14, so they were 3-6 after nine weeks, not after 10 as they are now.
However, the Packers started a positive sequence right after that in 2022. They beat the Dallas Cowboys, lost to the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles, and then got their four-win streak beating the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings. They would need something similar this year.
The Packers reached 62% of getting into the playoffs by week 18, when they only needed to beat the Detroit Lions at home to qualify. As you know, they lost the game and were eliminated.
2023 probabilities
If the Packers win out and finish the season with an 11-6 record, according to the New York Times tool, they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, so their situation is still in their hands for the most part. Nonethelesss, this is not a realistic scenario.
The two best teams they will still face based on DVOA are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions. If they lose these two games and win the other six, it will be a 9-8 record, still enough to give them a 72% chance of making the postseason.
The Packers have only a 1% chance of winning the NFC North, so let's not waste our time with those projections at the moment. They have, though, an 8% chance of being an NFC wild card team. It's not likely, to be sure, but it's possible.
Right now, the NFC wild card teams would be Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and Seattle Seahawks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons also have realistic chances of getting in, even though the difference between the first three teams and the rest of the NFC is huge.
Non-division leaders chances*
| Teams | Record | Playoff probability |
|---|---|---|
Dallas Cowboys | 6-3 | 96% |
Minnesota Vikings | 6-4 | 83% |
Seattle Seahawks | 6-3 | 79% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-5 | 33% |
Atlanta Falcons | 4-6 | 17% |
Green Bay Packers | 3-6 | 9% |
Washington Commanders | 4-6 | 6% |
Los Angeles Rams | 3-6 | 5% |
*just teams above 1%
At this point, it has to be a week by week approach by the Packers. If they beat the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday, their chances go up to 15%. If they lose, they fall to 6%. The main problem is that their next three games are tough.
Key to fight in December
They face the Los Angeles Chargers, the Detroit Lions, and the Kansas City Chiefs. If they lose all three, their chances go down to less than 1%. Even if they win out after that, it goes up to just 26%. But if they win one of the next three and then win out after the Chiefs game, their chances vary between 67% (if they beat the Chargers) and 80% (if they beat the Lions).
So in order to play meaningful football in December, the Packers need to win at least one of their next three games, ideally against the Lions on Thanksgiving — because divisional and conference matchups are more relevant for tiebreaking purposes.
It's a long road, and probably not what the Packers expect to happen until the end of the season. But if there's a hope for any sign of development from the young players, playing more games with any chance of reaching the playoffs is a valuable experience.
Top pick
On the other hand, some fans are already thinking about the draft. And, according to ESPN, the Packers have a 1.2% chance of getting the first overall pick.
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