Texas QB Arch Manning and Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar are exposing a harsh truth about college football that should worry coaches
Texas Longhorns redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2025 college football season as a player who was viewed as a “can’t miss” talent in his first year as a full-time starter. Manning, however, has struggled a bit to start the season. He went 11-for-25 for 111 yards, an interception, and a touchdown in a […]
Texas Longhorns redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2025 college football season as a player who was viewed as a “can’t miss” talent in his first year as a full-time starter.
Manning, however, has struggled a bit to start the season. He went 11-for-25 for 111 yards, an interception, and a touchdown in a 27-10 win against UTEP this past weekend.
Tennessee Vols senior quarterback Joey Aguilar, meanwhile, has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the sport in the first three games of the season.
Aguilar, who transferred from UCLA to Tennessee in April (because of the Nico Iamaleava drama in Knoxville), entered the season with significantly lower expectations than Manning. But Aguilar, to this point, has outplayed Manning against similar competition. Aguilar passed for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns against the Georgia Bulldogs last weekend.
What gives? Why is Manning, a former five-star recruit, struggling to find his footing while Aguilar, who was an afterthought coming out of high school, is thriving in the SEC?
There’s no clear answer, but I think a significant reason is the current state of the sport regarding NIL deals and the intense spotlight that highly touted recruits face. And that’s something college football coaches will have to consider when making quarterback decisions in the future.
Texas QB Arch Manning and Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar are exposing a harsh truth about the current state of college football that should concern coaches
I think it’s harder than ever to be a highly touted quarterback recruit.
Sure, the NIL money is nice. And I’m sure being courted heavily by the top programs in the sport is a nice feeling.
But the pressure that comes with being a highly paid top quarterback recruit is real, and we’ve seen the impact of that with several players over the last couple of seasons.
Former Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava, for example, never seemed comfortable at Tennessee last season. Iamaleava, a former five-star recruit, is undeniably talented. But last season, it felt like he was trying to play perfect — like he was trying not to mess up. You can think what you want about the way Iamaleava left Tennessee in the spring. That’s fine. I get it. But one thing that’s true about Iamaleava is that he faced a level of pressure and scrutiny in his first season as a starter, unlike anything any quarterback in college football has faced before.
Iamaleava was the first high school recruit to receive a highly publicized and lucrative NIL deal. Anytime Iamaleava’s name was mentioned after signing with Tennessee, it seemed like his rich NIL deal was also mentioned.
I can’t imagine the pressure of trying to live up to that deal. It can be a difficult thing to navigate, and no one but the player can truly understand what it’s like. That pressure almost certainly played a role in Iamaleava’s struggles last season.
When it comes to Arch, most folks felt like he would be immune to the pressure due to his status as a Manning. Arch grew up around the NFL. He has a unique understanding of what it’s like to be a high-profile athlete. But again, until you’re actually in those shoes, you don’t know what it’s like. And it seems that Arch is struggling a bit with the pressure of living up to the Arch Manning hype.
“I was wondering how Arch Manning would handle the hysteria that was around him,” said analyst Danny Kannell on the Cover 3 Podcast this week. “And he downplayed everything. But to me, this is very much a quarterback [that] his confidence is completely shot. And I feel like it’s impacting his mechanics.”
“We’ve seen Arch make all the throws,” continued Kannell. “And there were even times in that game when he had a couple of nice throws, but there are way too many stretches where it is — Sark (Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian) was trying to get his confidence up by calling easy routes, quick hitches, crossing routes, and he was missing them. This is a greater problem that Sark has one week to figure out. And I don’t know if you can solve it in one week. He has got to get Arch to play more free, to get him to go out there and play with confidence. But the only way to do that is to play your way out of it, and he’s got to do that, or else, when they get to the meat of their SEC schedule, this is going to be a major problem for Texas.”
Confidence. Playing free. Competing.
Those are all buzzwords that are frequently used and tend to lose their meaning, but they’re the most important words in sports. You cannot have success in high-level sports unless you play freely and confidently while competing your tail off. It’s a requirement.
A quarterback can have all the physical talent in the world. However, if they don’t play freely and confidently (while understanding how to play within the structure of their offense), it won’t work.
We’re seeing highly touted guys like Arch and Nico press. It’s like they’re trying to prove they’re deserving of the hype.
It’s a tough situation for players who are still very much in the developmental phase of their careers. But it’s becoming a common situation due to the current state of college football, where development has taken a back seat to wins.
On the flip side, you have players like Aguilar at Tennessee and Diego Pavia at Vanderbilt — quarterbacks who weren’t highly recruited (or recruited at all) coming out of high school. These are guys who have never had the benefit of the doubt. They’ve had to earn everything they’ve gotten in this sport while playing at schools like Diablo Valley College and New Mexico Military Institute.
Aguilar and Pavia aren’t trying to live up to the hype. They’re just out there competing and playing freely. As a result, you get performances like Pavia’s big game in Vanderbilt’s win against Alabama last season, or Aguilar’s huge day against Georgia.
What’s the better situation for a program trying to win games?
Getting a guy who may not be as physically talented, but he’s going to play free and confident, which spreads to the rest of the team?
Or should coaches opt for the more physically talented and hyped player, knowing that they may not be their best version due to the pressure?
Every situation is different, so there’s no obvious answer. However, this is something we’re increasingly seeing in the sport. And I think it’s something that coaches have to consider as they evaluate quarterbacks moving forward.
It doesn’t matter if you have the most talented quarterback on the field if he’s not playing with confidence.
Conversely, if you have the most confident quarterback on the field, there’s a good chance you’re going to have success.
I don’t envy coaches when it comes to evaluating quarterback talent these days — there are more external factors than ever that impact performance.
My best advice, though, is to go find the player who can make the necessary throws and is also an elite competitor who plays with a chip on his shoulder. That’s the guy who’s usually going to be the biggest winner on the field.
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