Amid Dolphins’ sluggish offensive start, 1 advanced metric surprisingly ranks Miami among the NFL’s top five teams as unit searches for identity
Care to venture a guess?
There’s not a whole lot for the Miami Dolphins to feel like they’re firing on all cylinders thus far in 2025 on offense. This development is particularly frustrating, given it is Mike McDaniel‘s fourth season with his offense in place with the Dolphins. The traditional measures of success continue to be unkind to the Dolphins — they’re 25th in scoring offense, 23rd in offensive yards, 23rd in giveaways, 20th in net yards per attempt, and 25th in percentage of drives that end in scores (33%).
Oh, right. And they’re 0-3.
The Dolphins’ defense has its own well-documented issues that need to be attacked head-on. But for the offense, there is one measure of success and metric in which the Dolphins are not only performing above average — they’re actually among the best in the league. Any guesses?
The 2025 Dolphins rank 6th in the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush through 3 games
Here’s your sign, McDaniel. The former run game coordinator has a running game that is showing plenty of punch — Miami ranks sixth in the NFL in total EPA/rush. They trail only the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Commanders, and Buffalo Bills. And when you filter for only rushes by non-quarterbacks (obviously not the Dolphins’ strength), Miami actually ranks fifth in EPA/rush.
EPA, or expected points added, is a preferable measure of effectiveness compared to yards per carry, which can be a somewhat hollow measure due to small sample sizes of chunk runs or, alternatively, game situations. Running for six yards while trailing by three scores on the scoreboard isn’t as meaningful as running for six yards on a third and 4 with the lead. That’s what EPA measures, and that’s why it’s an important feat for the Dolphins’ offense to have as a matter of reconciling their offensive performance thus far in 2025.
And, just as importantly, a vision of what to lean into to offer more stable performances that can cut down on all of those other poorly performing issues as the team attempts to normalize them. So with the New York Jets looming, here’s to the Dolphins accepting the invitation to run the dang ball, especially with the absence of Jets linebacker Quincy Williams.
It should be an intriguing matchup against New York’s defense, which ranks in the top five in run defense, according to EPA/rush.
McDaniel’s search for answers should guide him here first. And then, if the Jets sell out to stuff up the box, perhaps those explosive pass plays we’ve all been waiting for can emerge again. But it starts with leaning into the one thing this Dolphins offense is measuring well in thus far in 2025.
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