Final score prediction for the Magnolia Bowl matchup between LSU and Ole Miss as the Rebels try to bolster CFP resume
Are we in for another instant classic?
Saturday’s contest between No. 4 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss will put whomever wins in the proverbial cat bird’s seat. The winner will have a firm grasp on first place in the Southeastern Conference. And, the victor will have a jumpstart on everyone else when it comes to footing in the College Football Playoff.
As of this writing, Las Vegas favors the home team Ole Miss Rebels by 1.5 points. This one, as of late, has gone to the home team each of the last five meetings. Last year looked like the one matchup which would buck the trend, but LSU pulled it out of the fire in overtime – winning a game when it led for all of zero seconds.
Now, both teams are replacing a ton. LSU lost two tackles to the NFL and several skill players while Ole Miss had to replace 10 of its top 12 players on defense, per snap count. Lane Kiffin has found a spark plug and new wrinkle in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, but can he continue to be special against a fast and athletic LSU defense?
Ole Miss Rebels News
Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin isn’t happy about what’s ahead for the Rebels and he let everyone know it
The head coach did not hold back when asked about his thoughts on one of his new annual opponents.
Trinidad Chambliss is the x-factor Saturday, no question.
The former Division II signal caller has taken over for an injured Austin Simmons and has put on a masterclass the last two weeks. But, things get very real this weekend against a LSU defense which ranks 4th in rush yards per game (56.0), 7th in points per game (9.0), and 14th in yards per game (260.3).
I expect Ole Miss to run the football with vigor and force LSU to stack the box and dare the Rebels to throw it. If Chambliss and transfer running back Kewan Lacy can keep the Tigers honest, I think the zone read game is going to be crucial to staying ahead of schedule and give Kiffin the freedom to take shots downfield in the early downs.
LSU is very good at all three levels so one could guess Kiffin will try to utilize some redirection and window dressing to confuse LSU. If you can get a fast-flowing defense out of position, you can make them pay. And if LSU makes a decision to NOT let Chambliss and the Ole Miss run game beat them, Kiffin is going to get plenty of opportunities to take shots downfield in one-on-one coverage.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier will attack a new-look Ole Miss secondary.
Last year, it was a career-worst performance for Nussmeier in terms of completion percentage. But, he still went well over 300 yards and had the game-winner in overtime. This season, the weapons aren’t the same and the numbers are down (59th in passing yards per game).
LSU’s struggles to run the football is not helping the passing game. And the LSU offensive line is still a work in progress after losing both tackles to the NFL. Caden Durham’s status is still up in the air so Brian Kelly’s offense might rely on a few backups to generate some offense.
The Tigers will try to attack an Ole Miss secondary which is still finding itself and who fits in the right spots. But, despite the turnover, Pete Golding’s defense is still 4th in completion percentage (49 percent), 15th in yards per pass (5.5), and 23rd in passing yards per game (166.3).
This one will be decided in the trenches.
It all comes down to LSU’s offensive line versus Ole Miss’ defensive line. The Rebels have really struggled to get the quarterback on the ground thus far. The front seven has generated a ton of pressure and racked up the quarterback hurries, but are just 110th in the country in sack percentage. If Ole Miss wants to win and win comfortably this weekend, it will need to get after Nussmeier early and often.
Last weekend, the Tigers struggled to keep Nussmeier upright against Southeastern Louisiana. The Lions lost the game but sacked him twice and had five tackles for loss. Ole Miss will need to get home, generate negative plays to get LSU behind the sticks, and create turnovers.
I think the LSU struggles up front give Ole Miss a real opportunity to build an early lead and force Nussmeier to try and put the team on his back. In doing so, I think he will throw a pick or two, giving the Rebels short fields and extra possessions. I think Kiffin has some things up his sleeve with Chambliss and the Ole Miss tight ends are the difference in the middle of the field to extend drives and get it done in the red zone.
