Tua Tagovailoa’s decline in one of his defining strengths should worry the Dolphins far more than anything said at the podium Sunday afternoon
The calling card for the Miami Dolphins’ passing game under Mike McDaniel has turned into a pumpkin through 6 games in 2025.
The Miami Dolphins are in the thick of it. And their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, kicked up a massive firestorm in the immediate aftermath of their latest loss. Miami, fresh off the heels of a 29-27 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers, saw their quarterback light up ‘team leadership’ in front of the microphone in a move that has spurred all kinds of criticism from former players and fans alike.
But there’s another piece of the Tua Tagovailoa puzzle that should be drawing much more ire from Dolphins fans than an attempt at accountability gone wrong. Tagovailoa this year has regressed in a number of statistical measures — but there’s no misinterpreting the film on his targets in what was once a prime area for production.
Tua Tagovailoa and the death of the Dolphins’ intermediate passing game
The book on the Miami Dolphins was written in the early chapters of the Tua Tagovailoa/Mike McDaniel marriage that this team was going to gouge defenses between the numbers and, because of the team’s unique speed at wide receiver, they could do so in deeper portions of the field more effectively than most teams could dream of. The offense’s average depth of target and snap-to-release quickness pairing was it’s calling card.
And because of it, Tagovailoa thrived in the 10-19 yard areas of the field, especially between the hashes and the numbers.
Miami’s offense hummed through 2022 and 2023 with this area serving as their primary watering hole for chunk gains and catches in stride that could pop big runs after the catch. The opportunities in this area were reduced in 2024 as defenses continued to adjust uniquely to Miami’s offense and remained steadfast in holding leverage. But when the targets came, they were still productive.
From 2022 through 2024, Tagovailoa attempted 294 passes between the numbers that traveled 10-19 air-yards downfield. He completed 215 of those 294 attempts (73.1% completion) for 3,780 yards (12.86 yards per attempt), 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. That’s good for an NFL passer rating of 113.69 across a three-year sample size.
In 2025, the intermediate pass has died on this offense. There are ugly misses every week. Some, like the interception to Colts edge defender Laiatu Latu in Week 1, featured poor field vision. There was an equally bad miss in Week 2 with Miami trying to seize a late comeback win that prompted an interception by Marte Mapu. Week 5 against Carolina? The Dolphins trailed by three in the final two minutes and Tagovailoa missed Waddle high on a wide open wrap-in that could have been the drive-starter Miami needed to tie (or win) the game.
The numbers this season are jarring. Through six games, Tagovailoa is 10 of 17 in passes to the same intermediate area of the field at 10-19 air yards of depth. That completion percentage is a 15% drop from his previous three-year standard. He’s thrown for 150 yards (8.82 yards per attempt, a drop of 50% from 2022-2024). He’s logged zero touchdowns in this space and a whopping four interceptions. The passer rating is 48.28 on targets between the numbers at 10-19 air yards.
Tua Tagovailoa’s intermediate passing splits in the middle of the field under Mike McDaniel
- 2022 through 2024: 215/294 passing, 73.1% completion rate, 3,780 yards (12.86 yards per attempt), 10 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 113.69 passer rating
- 2025 through Week 6: 10/17 passing, 58.8% completion rate, 150 yards (8.82 yards per attempt), 0 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 48.28 passer rating
- On throws between the numbers that travel 10-19 air-yards downfield
Where that leaves the Dolphins is going to be a pretty uncomfortable conversation. Tagovailoa is the starter this year and has a fully guaranteed, mature salary in the second year of his four-year extension in 2026, as well. He’s not going anywhere unless the team pays him to go away next season — which is a conversation for another day. The larger point is these are supposed to be the pieces of the puzzle that serve as answers. Right now, they’re sources of problems. The team’s woeful defensive performance each week will only compound issues and create more pressure to find throws in this space.
We’ll see what the Dolphins are able to cook up. But more than any post-game snippet, this is the Tua Tagovailoa talking point that should draw your ire. One of the biggest identifying strengths of his game has become a weakness so far in 2025.