Packers find themselves in an unusual yet promising position that speaks volumes about their progress through six weeks
Green Bay has had a rare tie, which puts them first in the NFC North despite having fewer wins than the Lions through six weeks of the regular season.
You might think that the Green Bay Packers are not a great football team at this point. But is there one? The Buffalo Bills have lost two in a row, the Detroit Lions have only beaten bad teams, and the two best records in the league are from the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — two teams who have played excellent football, but might not deter the great teams from winning in the postseason.
Rare position in the NFC North
With the bye already gone and a tie against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4, the Packers find themselves in a rare situation. Green Bay is not the team with the most wins in the NFC North, however it’s still leading the division.
That happens because the Packers have three wins, a loss, and a tie (that works like half a win for standing purposes). That means Green Bay has a .700 winning percentage this season. Because the Lions are 4-2, their winning percentage is .667 — Detroit is the only team in the division that has not had a bye week yet.
Both the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears are 3-2, with a .600 winning percentage. The NFC North is the only division in football where all four teams have a positive record, and this should surprise no one.
NFC North playoff chances
- Packers: 54%
- Lions: 49%
- Bears: 49%
- Vikings: 46%
According to the site Playoffstatus.com, who provided the data above, the Packers have a 54% chance of making the playoffs, the only NFC North team above 50% — and that happens because all four teams are above 45%.
Green Bay also has a 31% chance of reaching the divisional round, 16% of reaching the NFC Championship Game, 8% of getting to the Super Bowl, and 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. It’s the fifth-highest chance in the NFC, after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Seattle Seahawks.
Helpful outcome
It may have been frustrating to tie a game like the Packers did against the Cowboys, but that half win is truly helpful for the standings. Had Green Bay lost that game, the team would be tied with the Vikings and Bears and behind the Lions in the divisional rankings.
It might not matter right now, but it will certainly be a significant difference to avoid tie-breakers down the stretch in such a competitive division.
Back in 2013, the Packers finished the season with an 8-7-1 record and won the NFC North, half a win ahead of the Bears, who had an 8-8 record. It was that season in which Aaron Rodgers missed seven games with a broken collarbone and returned in time to play the regular season finale against the Bears in Chicago.
Strength of schedule
According to Tankathon, the Packers have the second-easiest remaining schedule amongst NFC North teams. The combined winning percentage of the teams Green Bay will face from now on is 53.7 percent, the 13th hardest in the league.
The Bears have the 19th hardest schedule (48.5), but the Detroit Lions have the toughest (60.7) and the Minnesota Vikings have the sixth toughest (55.8) remaining schedule.
Just as expected, the NFC North will be a blood bath.
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Packers are 3-1-1, leading the NFC North and with the second seed in the NFC. While the team is not perfect, there’s room for optimism and hope that it’s a real Super Bowl contender.
