LSU and Vanderbilt match up in what might be the game of the week this Saturday. While the Tigers have seen public support fade a bit as Garrett Nussmeier’s injury status has been in the air, the Tigers can change the narrative sooner than later. It won’t come easy against a Vanderbilt team that is actually favored.

This duel of senior quarterbacks will come down to the margins. Diego Pavia is a college football fan’s dream, showing off a big personality and toughness as a passer and rusher. But he and this Vandy team are better than just being a novel act; they’re a potential College Football Playoff contender with a win this week.

Our A to Z experts have gotten together to predict how this matchup shakes out. Will LSU put to bed this emerging giant in Vandy? Let’s see how our top pickers see this matchup.

Key Facts & Stats for LSU vs. Vandy

• Both the No. 10 LSU Tigers (5-1 overall, 2-1 SEC) and No. 17 Vanderbilt Commodores (5-1 overall, 1-1 SEC) enter the matchup with identical records, marking Vanderbilt’s best start since 1943 and putting them in contention for the College Football Playoff.
• Vanderbilt is a 2.5-point home favorite with a 58% win probability per advanced models, reflecting their strong home performance and LSU’s road challenges in SEC play.
• The Commodores rank No. 4 nationally in points per game (43.2) and No. 3 in yards per play, fueled by a rushing attack averaging 6.6 yards per attempt (4th in NCAA) and 35 total offensive touchdowns (5th in NCAA).
• The Tigers boast one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing just 11.8 points per game (5th in NCAA) and 297 total yards per game (21st), with only 102.5 rushing yards surrendered per contest (21st).

Vanderbilt 27, LSU 23

The LSU Tigers’ defense has been one of the best in the country, but their offense ranks 99th in adjusted EPA per play heading into the Vanderbilt game. Garrett Nussmeier and his offensive weapons have not lived up to the hype. They rank 68th in plays of 10+ yards. 97th in plays of 30+ yards. Vanderbilt’s defense hasn’t shown to be elite, but the lack of offense for LSU could be a problem.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s offense ranks 5th in yards per play (3rd among P4 schools), top 20 in most every explosive play measure, and they boast a mobile quarterback in Diego Pavia that should create some problems for the Tigers. This stays close all game, but Pavia pulls off some magic late, taking down Brian Kelly and the Tigers, 27-23. – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Vanderbilt 24, LSU 21

This matchup is one of the best of the week because I am fascinated by how starkly different these two teams are. Vanderbilt’s offense, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, is one of the best in the country, but the ‘Dores defense leaves much to be desired and just got shellacked by Alabama two weeks prior. On the flip side, LSU’s offense, despite the talent seemingly on the roster, has floundered and flopped all season.

The Tigers’ defense, however, has proven to be one of the best in the country, with an elite secondary and a front seven full of playmakers. Will Vanderbilt’s offense be able to score enough points on LSU to win, or will LSU’s offense finally click against a poor Vandy defense? With it being at Vanderbilt, I’m going to bat for the home team in a close one. – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

LSU 24, Vanderbilt 23

I’ll zag a bit from the boys on this one, as I actually believe that Brian Kelly finally came clean about Garrett Nussmeier’s health and status entering this week. It’s been a more frustrating few weeks for LSU than their record shows, and keeping that perspective makes it easier to justify maintaining some faith they can iron this out. The recipe isn’t pretty, but grinding out possessions and then falling back onto an elite defense will work.

The key is turnovers and how well Nussmeier can thread the needle between recklessness and playmaker. He’s always prone to interceptions, but LSU is almost unbeatable when he’s healthy and keeping the ball safe. Vandy is absolutely legit, which is why they’re favored. But I think LSU has a higher ceiling because of its raw talent and defensive dominance for most of this season. – Ian Valentino, A to Z Sports LSU

Vanderbilt 27, LSU 23

The Tigers enter this game with vibes around them just feeling… off. The defense has played well so far throughout the season, but their offense, led by QB Garrett Nussmeier, just can’t seem to get on the same page. They haven’t been able to run the ball well enough, and some communication issues in the passing game have hindered their upside.

Nussmeier is certainly playing through ailments, but the Tigers need his best game so far if they want to beat Vanderbilt on the road. Vandy’s offense has been one of the best in the SEC so far this season, but they were stymied a bit against Alabama. The Crimson Tide allowed just 333 total offensive yards from the Commodores and forced three turnovers. If the LSU defense can do that, I think they come out victorious.

That being said, I’m gonna take the chance on the underdog who really isn’t the underdog on the betting side & choose Vandy to win. – Adam Holt, A to Z New Orleans Saints

Final score predictions for LSU vs. Vanderbilt

Our team is in a 3-1 favor that Vandy will beat LSU by a final average tally of 25-22.75. I was the lone believer in the Tigers, but it will admittedly be a close game. The winner will earn a top-12 spot in the College Football Playoff.