Final Score Predictions for Tennessee vs. Kentucky: Can Vols defeat Wildcats to get back on track for College Football Playoff?

Vols need a bounce back win, but the Wildcats can make any game an ugly physical match

Craig Smith, Rob Gregson, Travis May, Zach Ragan
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The Tennessee Vols and Kentucky Wildcats face off for the 121st time in this border rivalry’s history this weekend. The Vols have largely dominated this battle in recent years, but Kentucky often finds a way to make this a close, ugly match.

Tennessee is fresh off a disappointing 37-20 loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide and desperately need a win to get back on track to make the College Football Playoff.

Kentucky has been fighting through a rough patch on their schedule, facing off against South Carolina, Georgia, and Texas all in a row, but has been finding ways to hang with their opponents, even if they’re outmatched from a talent perspective.

Kentucky would love nothing more than to play spoilers for Tennessee’s season. The Vols can’t lose another game all season long if they want a shot at the real postseason. Given the stakes, members of media from A to Z Sports who cover both teams decided to weigh in to predict a winner. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Key Stats for Tennessee vs. Kentucky

  • Both Tennessee and Kentucky rank outside the top 80 among FBS teams in scoring defense, but both have faced extremely tough schedules to this point (top 25 by most measures), full of high scoring offenses
  • Tennessee ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play and adjusted EPA (expected points added) per play on offense while Kentucky ranks 110th and 112th respectfully
  • The Vols rank 22nd in third down conversion rate while Kentucky ranks 72nd among FBS teams
  • Kentucky ranks 27th in defensive plays allowed of 10+ yards, meaning they force teams to settle for small chunks of yardage, giving up very few explosives, while the Vols rank 111th by that measure

Tennessee 30, Kentucky 22

Kentucky is going to ugly this game up as much as possible like they did against Texas just a week ago, but the Vols are just a better offense than the Longhorns. The Wildcats are going to try to force everything underneath, but the Vols offense is fine winning that way knowing their ground game can win consistently, very rarely creating negative plays. If Joey Aguilar just plays it safe and smart, the Vols are going to make their way up to around 30 points, but it will feel more difficult than it needs to be. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s offense, full of youth and little explosion, will settle for too many field goals, keep it close, but ultimately fall short. 30-22 Tennessee. – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Tennessee 34, Kentucky 17

Tennessee needs a bounce back performance after a mistake-filled road loss to a surging Alabama team last weekend. The Volunteers have struggled in big road games under Josh Heupel, and they’ll back on the road this weekend. The good news for Tennessee, though, is that they’ll be traveling to Lexington, a place where the program’s had plenty of success. Kentucky is one of the worst teams (if not the worst) in the SEC this season, but this is a rivalry game — so I think we’ll see the best version of the Wildcats. I think Kentucky will score some points against the Vols’ feast or famine defense. And I think they’ll try to run the ball to eat up as much clock as possible to limit Tennessee’s possessions in this one. But ultimately, I think the Vols win a “get right game” against the Wildcats 34-17. – Zach Ragan, A to Z Sports Tennessee

Tennessee 30, Kentucky 17

Tennessee is coming off a rough performance against Alabama filled with self-inflicted wounds (a Heupel big road game trademark), but they don’t have time to feel sorry for themselves as they’re back on the road at night in a not-so-easy spot against Kentucky. The Wildcats have a defense that can give Tennessee some issues as we saw last weekend against Texas, and they’ll keep the Vols’ offense from going off. However, the sputtering UK offense won’t keep up, and the Vols will finally put it away in the fourth quarter. – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports

Tennessee 40, Kentucky 17

The Vols had a tough showing last week in Tuscaloosa, but I think the Wildcats of Kentucky are in for a tough one on Saturday. Before the Alabama game, Tennessee was one of the most explosive offenses in the conference. Kane Wommack isn’t calling plays in Lexington, and Zabien Brown isn’t back there to take the ball 100 yards for a pick six. Tennessee is a 9.5-point favorite, but I don’t think the Vols win by less than double digits. With the Vols on the ropes, I expect Joey Aguilar to have a bounce-back game and Chris Brazzell to have a field day against Kentucky’s secondary. Give me the Vols in a big one. – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama

Final Score Predictions for Tennessee vs. Kentucky

The A to Z Sports staff is pretty confident that the Vols control this SEC border rivalry game on Saturday against Kentucky. On average, our team predicts that Tennessee will win with a final score around 33-18. That would be exactly what the doctor ordered for a Vols team that desperately needs a bounce back “get right” game before they play Oklahoma, Florida, and Vanderbilt in November.

We’ll be back with more Tennessee Vols and Kentucky Wildcats coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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