Joe Burrow has his eyes on the playoffs, here’s the easiest way for the Bengals to get back in the driver’s seat
Joe Burrow has a goal. Here’s what needs to happen for it to be possible.
Joe Burrow not only wants to play again this season, he wants to get the Cincinnati Bengals into the playoffs. Burrow noted Cincinnati’s slim postseason hopes rely on winning the AFC North for the first time in three years, and how it’s still possible despite the team’s current 3-6 record with him still on the Reserve/Injured list.
“Our division is wide open,” Burrow said Monday. “Pittsburgh is 5-4 at this point and we play them this week. So everything is still there in front of us. It’s very rare that our division looks like this, but it does this year.”
Burrow has been cleared to practice and could very well come back from his turf toe injury sometime this month, or early December. If that happens, the Bengals need to be much closer to .500 than they are right now should the playoffs still be an achievable goal for him and the team.
What needs to happen for the Bengals to position themselves for a playoff push
Cincinnati currently has less than a 1% chance at winning the division, according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. It’s as low of a percentage without being mathematically eliminated through nine games in 10 weeks.
That’s where they are. Here’s where they need to go for the playoffs to be a likely outcome.
Burrow is definitely out for this week’s game against the 5-4 and AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, and it’s a safe assumption for him to miss next week’s matchup against the New England Patriots. Cincinnati needs to win both while the franchise QB works his way back in practice. Meanwhile, the 4-5 Baltimore Ravens have upcoming games against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, and the Steelers play the Chicago Bears in Week 12.
If the Bengals go 2-0 and both the Ravens and Steelers go 0-2, Cincinnati’s chances at winning the division rise to . . . 15%.
We need to go even deeper.
The game many have circled on their calendars will be on Thanksgiving night when the Bengals go at Baltimore. Burrow hinted he’d like to return for this game, so let’s assume he gets his wish and he pulls out a road win against the Ravens for the first time since 2021. Pittsburgh plays the Buffalo Bills that week, and obviously Cincinnati needs Buffalo to pull that one out.
Following along? Here’s a visual:
Week 11
- Bengals beat Steelers
- Browns beat Ravens
Week 12
- Bengals beat Patriots
- Jets beat Ravens
- Bears beat Steelers
Week 13
- Bengals beat Ravens
- Bills beat Steelers
After all of that, Cincinnati would then have a 54% chance at winning the division heading into December with a 6-6 record. Losing to New England cuts that in half. Losing to either Pittsburgh or Baltimore keeps it well below 20%.
The margin for error is very, very, very slim these next few weeks while Burrow looks to make a comeback. Essentially everything has to go right just for the Bengals to get back in the driver’s seat like they were when he first went down back in Week 2.
But if someone asks if there is a chance, you can say there most definitely is.
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