Minnesota Vikings could make a massive swing on a Joe Burrow trade, and figuring out compensation is a difficult proposition
Joe Burrow seemingly opened up the door for a potential trade, and the Minnesota Vikings should call. Here’s what a trade offer could look like.
Quarterback has been the No. 1 topic of conversation with the Minnesota Vikings the last two-plus years. Moving on from Kirk Cousins, drafting J.J. McCarthy, and letting Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones leave in free agency have been the biggest topics of conversation with this football team.
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell chose McCarthy, and for good reason. He was the first quarterback the Vikings have taken in the top 10 in the NFL Draft, and they believed a Super Bowl roster could be built around him. Through seven starts, it’s been incredibly frustrating for the Vikings, who sit at 5-8, and questions remain about whether McCarthy is the future.
Rumors of Minnesota Vikings trading for Joe Burrow begin to circulate
Does that sound a little bit absurd? Well, maybe it isn’t. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but things haven’t gone well with the Cincinnati Bengals. His comments from Wednesday raised a major red flag.
“If I want to keep doing this, then what am I trying to do with myself?” Burrow told reporters. “And I have to have fun doing it. You know, if it’s not fun, then what am I doing it for? So, that’s the mindset.”
If he becomes available via trade, the Vikings would be smart to make the call and see if they can swing a trade. That in itself is a difficult conversation.
Salary cap could prevent a Joe Burrow trade
Trying to navigate a Burrow trade is a difficult proposition for multiple reasons. The biggest one is the salary cap. There are two reasons why we haven’t seen many quarterbacks on massive contracts traded:
- Talent
- Contract structure
Modern-day contracts use more option bonuses (which act as a signing bonus, but can be given at any time during the contract) than they ever did before. They allow the player to earn large amounts of cash while the team retains flexibility for future years. Burrow’s contract is heavy on option bonuses, with a total of $90 million in those.
If the Bengals trade Burrow after the season, they would incur nearly $57 million in dead cap. If it’s after March 23, it will be nearly $67 million. That is a lot of money for the Bengals to eat, especially for a notoriously cheap organization.
If the Vikings were to assume Burrow’s contract, they would be responsible for that $10 million roster bonus, along with a base salary of $25.25 million for a cap hit of $27.25 million this year. Given the salary cap situation for the Vikings, it would be difficult but not impossible to navigate.
History of quarterback trades doesn’t give a clear picture
There aren’t a ton of examples of high-profile trades to figure out what the proper draft capital should be. Let’s look at the last 15 years of high-end quarterback trades to get a baseline of what a Burrow trade could be.
| Year | Team Trading For QB | Received | Sent |
| 2023 | New York Jets | Aaron Rodgers, 2023 1st and 5th | 2023 1st, 2nd, and 6th, Conditional 2024 2nd |
| 2022 | Cleveland Browns | Deshaun Watson and 2022 4th | 2022 1st and 4th, 2023 1st and 3rd, 2024 1st and 4th |
| 2022 | Denver Broncos | Russell Wilson and 2022 4th | QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DT Shelby Harris, 2022 1st, 2nd, and 5th, 2023 1st and 2nd |
| 2022 | Washington Commanders | Carson Wentz, 2022 2nd and 7th | 2022 2nd and 3rd, 2022 conditional 3rd |
| 2021 | Carolina Panthers | Sam Darnold | 2021 6th, 2022 2nd and 4th |
| 2021 | Indianapolis Colts | Carson Wentz | 2021 3rd and 2022 1st |
| 2021 | Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford | QB Jared Goff, 2021 3rd, 2022 1st, and 2023 1st |
| 2016 | Minnesota Vikings | Sam Bradford | 2017 1st and 2018 4th |
| 2013 | Kansas City Chiefs | Alex Smith | 2013 2nd and 2014 2nd |
| 2011 | Las Vegas Raiders | Carson Palmer | 2012 1st and 2013 2nd |
Of these trades, the only quarterbacks who could be considered in a similar tier to Burrow are Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, and Stafford. Of those, Rodgers was nearly 40, Watson had more than 20 sexual assault allegations, and Stafford was a major question mark after over a decade with the Detroit Lions.
Now, Wilson, Watson, and Stafford were still viewed as very good players; the first two trades turned out to be catastrophes for the Broncos and Browns. Wilson was released after just two years, and the Browns are just biding their time before they rid their roster of Watson’s fully guaranteed contract. The Stafford trade sent back a quarterback on a big deal in Goff, which is why the Rams included the second first-round pick.
How do we take a look at these deals and try to put a value on Burrow? It’s a tough proposition. On one hand, Burrow is an elite quarterback right now, but the big issue is he’s often hurt. The 29-year-old has missed 22 games in his six seasons in the NFL. Considering the long injury history (torn ACL, right wrist, turf toe), that complicates things when trying to put a deal together.
The one thing the Vikings have going for them is that McCarthy is on a rookie contract, which would allow the Bengals to give him a try for at least a season before deciding whether they want to commit to him with any long-term plans.
There’s no doubt the Vikings would be better immediately with Burrow over McCarthy, but the real question is how they would fortify the roster, given the depth issues already there. If you trade multiple top picks for Burrow, it makes having quality depth, something this roster is already void of, that much harder. Plus, the recent history of massive quarterback trades being catastrophic for the team that got the quarterback in return could end up driving the price down.
Remember this: just because a player is worth a certain price in theory doesn’t mean anything if a team won’t pay it. It’s why trades, as a whole, are all over the place in terms of value. If there is a massive bidding war for Burrow, then you’ll likely see a Wilson-esque trade package.
In a vacuum, it will be closer to what the Rams paid for Stafford, but in this case, the second first-round pick isn’t for taking on a massive contract; it’s based on Burrow’s pedigree at the position.
All of this is moot if McCarthy takes a major step forward, but the idea will be discussed in many forms over the next few months. Plus, it would make Justin Jefferson happy.
Predicted trade compensation: Vikings acquire Joe Burrow for J.J. McCarthy, 2026 1st, 2026 3rd, and 2027 1st
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