Todd Bowles’ honest admission about the state of the Buccaneers creates a brutal outlook for their playoff hopes
The Bucs failed to develop a killer instinct in 2025 and it has them on the brink of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
Here we are: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are neck-and-neck with the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South lead with just three games left in the 2025 regular season.
This wasn’t supposed to happen, but at the same time, a lot of people who follow the Bucs closely will tell you they aren’t surprised to see a fourth-straight in-season slump under Todd Bowles that puts Tampa Bay’s backs against the wall over the final handful of games.
It’s even more frustrating knowing how much Bowles and the Bucs pressed themselves to instill a killer instinct in 2025, yet failed to do so. That flop is part of the reason why they’re in the spot they’re in and the tough part is the window to develop said instinct may have already closed.
Bucs don’t look like they can finish the job
Thursday night’s loss to the Falcons cast major doubt on the Bucs’ ability to finish a game and the worst part is both the offense and defense played their part. There’s obviously the infamous 4th and 14 debacle on the defense’s part and then Baker Mayfield missed an open Emeka Egbuka on the previous drive that would’ve resulted in a first down and ended the game.
It simply looks like they can’t get it done and Bowles made it clear afterward that the Bucs aren’t just going to “snap” into a killer instinct. While that’s logical (it’s something you have to refine and harden over time), it’s also very concerning when considering the Bucs basically can’t screw up at all during the last three games.
“[It is] very frustrating thus far,” Bowles said when asked about the disappointment that comes with the lack of developing a killer instinct. “You can do it all right in practice all week. You can do it in the game right four out of five times and on the fifth time, we don’t play it right, and that’s frustrating…
“… I don’t think you can snap into it. I think you have to grind it out. You‘ve just got to take it one day at a time, one play at a time, and you’ve got to grind them out. You’re not going to snap into being good or snap into being worse. You’ve got to take it play by play and you’ve just got to do the little things right, then the big things will come.”
At this point, it’d be more of a surprise if Tampa Bay made the playoffs than missed them.
What happens if the Bucs lose to the Panthers this week?
Obviously, the first domino is the Bucs fall out of first place in the NFC South. That would then put them in a must-win situation against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.
If the Bucs lose that game then they better pray to the football gods Carolina loses to the Seattle Seahawks that week. They’ll become the new kings of the NFCS if the Bucs lose to the ‘Fins and the Panthers beat the ‘Hawks. If both teams win, the Bucs would have to beat the Panthers in Week 18 to get in and would have the advantage thanks to winning the common opponents tiebreaker.
A Tampa Bay win over Miami and a Carolina loss to Seattle would pit both teams at 8-8, however, and would set Week 18 up for a winner-takes-all showdown.
So what does a Buccaneers win in Week 16 mean?
If the Bucs are able to get back on track and beat the Panthers this week then it’s basically the above scenario in reverse. A Week 16 win sets up where a Week 17 win essentially locks up the NFC South, regardless of what happens in Week 18. The fact the Bucs have the common opponent tiebreaker to rely on should come in handy if they take care of business.
There is a scenario that involves going all the way down to the strength of victory tiebreaker and that’s if the Bucs and Panthers split and Tampa loses to Miami, but Carolina beats Seattle. It remains to be seen how that shakes out because Miami’s and Seattle’s other games will play into that, but right now, the Panthers would have the edge thanks to their mark of .469% compared to the Bucs’ .459%.
Final word
Somehow, someway the Bucs still control their destiny, but they’re officially at their limit.
They can’t afford any more screw-ups and frankly, it’s hard to put the faith in the idea they do avoid mistakes and get a win in Carolina on Sunday. As mentioned earlier, this team has rallied plenty in the past, but this year just feels different and it feels like the Bucs have played with fire one too many times and now they’re finally getting burned for it.
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