The Green Bay Packers want Matt LaFleur, but contract negotiations are what separates both sides from a long-term extension at the moment. While a deal doesn’t get done, there will be questions about the future of both sides.

From afar, the Miami Dolphins monitor the situation. After firing Mike McDaniel, the team would realistically be willing to give up some draft compensation and give out a big contract to make LaFleur their next head coach.

It is not a simple negotiation. Unlike player transactions, coaches have input on potential trades, which makes any deal unavoidably a three-party process if it is going to happen.

Considering all the complexities and perspectives from both franchises, our writers Wendell Ferreira (Green Bay Packers) and Kyle Crabbs (Miami Dolphins) will represent each side in a simulated negotiation to analyze if the parties can reach a trade agreement.

Wendell: Basic parameters

The starting point of the conversation to me has to be what the Denver Broncos gave up for Sean Payton. I know that the Broncos were somewhat desperate, but any team that needs a head coach and is willing to trade for an established one kind of is. And while Payton had a more impressive resume than LaFleur, he had been out of the league for a year.

The Packers can realistically just decide to keep LaFleur and pay his extension — which by the way is still the most likely outcome.

Back in 2023, the Broncos gave up a first-round pick (29th overall) and a future second/third-round swap. While I understand the Dolphins have a higher pick (11th), the trade needs to involve real draft capital to work.

Kyle: What the Dolphins would ideally want

As the Dolphins come into a conversation around possible Matt LaFleur compensation, the low hanging fruit and the obvious name to start the conversation around is Sean Payton, absolutely. But Miami navigating the Payton precedent should start with several amendments that would seem to paint the picture of a lesser compensation package. First and foremost, Payton left the Saints with 161 career wins and a Super Bowl to his name — while also coming out of retirement to re-enter the fray. Those dynamics are very different from Matt LaFleur’s tour in Green Bay — he’s a highly successful coach but not yet in the stratosphere of coach as Payton. 

I would also recognize that all the reporting on this front indicates that both the Packers and LaFleur would like “clarity” on the future. Green Bay simply letting him play out the final year of his contract in 2026 is possible — but I don’t think either side would be happy about it and it certainly wouldn’t help the chances of a further working relationship beyond next season. I’d try to keep that in the back of my mind while working through negotiations. 

Miami’s early draft pick at 11 greatly complicates the Payton compensation package, as well, as the difference of pick No. 11 and pick No. 29 on trade value charts ranges from the value of a late first-round pick (Jimmy Johnson trade chart model) to an early second-round pick (Rich Hill trade chart model). Green Bay does not have a first-round draft choice courtesy of the Micah Parsons deal, which cuts off, from my standpoint, the only avenue in which pick No. 11 could have been in play — via a swap.

Wendell: Trying to find a middle ground

I don’t think the Packers will allow LaFleur to act as a lame-duck coach either, but they can still extend him — after all, he’s been in the playoffs for six of his seven years in Green Bay. The 11th pick is premium capital, no doubt about it, but it’s hard for the Packers to give up an established head coach and one of the top offensive minds in football without real compensation.

That being said, the Aaron Rodgers trade to the New York Jets may be a good middle ground. The Day 2 swap could happen in 2026, leaving a protected first-round pick on the table for 2027. Let’s say, a top 10 protected first a year from now — and if disaster strikes for Miami in 2026 and it stays in the top 10, the Packers would get an early second.

So, the compensation would be a second/third swap in 2026 and a pick in the 11-42 range in 2027.

Kyle: What Matt LaFleur wants

Kyle: This is where this whole standoff gets interesting. Matt LaFleur does have a say in this whole saga to some degree. I know he’s stated he wants to be a Packer — but the business of sports sometimes gets in the way. If the Packers can amicably find that middle ground for an extension, great. This is probably the part where these parties will all smile and walk away.

But if LaFleur is simply asking for too much and an extension isn’t going to happen due to the numbers, the Packers have a choice to make. Let him coach in 2026 and possibly walk for nothing, or strike while the iron is hot? Miami, along with any other head coaching team in the top-12 of the draft, simply isn’t going to play ball on a first-round pick in the discussion. And if I’m the Dolphins and not willing to pay for the 11th pick in the NFL Draft in 2026, why would I be willing to pay a pick not protected at the same pick value or worse next year in a better draft class? The Dolphins may be hard-pressed to win more games next year given their roster and cap reset this offseason, so I would expect their 2027 first to be on the higher side of the bubble. I can’t go there.

The Dolphins have five picks in the top-100 at their disposal; I’d be willing to use them to make a competitive offer. Per the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, picks No. 43 & 111 (Miami’s own 2 & 4) are worth 542 points — a value that surpasses the value of the 36th overall pick. Pick no. 29 was the main event in the Sean Payton trade — and Payton should be regarded in a higher tier as a coach given his accolades at the time of that trade. In a perfect world, I’d ask for a Day 3 pick back in return from Green Bay to help keep the influx of rookie contracts incoming high for Miami in 2026 as they reset their cap. But in this negotiation, I’d be willing to send just picks No. 42 & 111.

Wendell: Setting the edge

If you think Matt LaFleur is going to be a good head coach, we are probably talking about a pick in the 20s anyway. It’s not even me playing hardball here, but the Packers don’t have a first-rounder in each of the next two drafts and mid-rounders don’t move the needle for a coach of LaFleur’s caliber. I would be willing to give up something back, but without the chance of getting a first, I’d just pay what LaFleur deserves and allow you to be happy with Jeff Hafley.

Based on Brian Gutekunst’s history, he knows how to be patient and wait until the compensation is fair.

Kyle: Final offer

Kyle: I understand the Packers’ concerns about the value — they’re justified to want to maximize their return here without premium picks via the trade for Micah Parsons. The Dolphins roster needs a lot of work, but a head coach could go a long way in fortifying things, too. Miami’s final offer to Green Bay ups the offer to give them the value of a pick in the mid-20s via the trade value charts — Picks No. 43 & 87, which totals value between picks No. 29 & 30 on the trade value chart. Anything more expensive than this and the Dolphins will tip their cap and transition to other head coach interviews in this scenario.

Wendell: Time to make a decision

This is a good example of why this is not an easy negotiation by any means. Both teams have reasonable arguments, and it’s extremely difficult to find a sweet spot that actually works well for Green Bay and Miami. In this scenario, from a Packers’ perspective, I would do everything possible to extend LaFleur and keep him around with a market contract.

In a somewhat unlikely scenario that LaFleur wants a monster deal and the Packers are not willing to go there, second- and third-round picks are not an unfair compensation package, so it would be a decent outcome for everyone involved — knowing it’s not plan A for Green Bay.