‘You’re betting on the worst type of outlier’ – Alabama QB Ty Simpson continues to receive mixed reviews as a 2026 NFL Draft prospect
NFL Draft analysts continue to debate whether former Alabama QB Ty Simpson should be a first round pick.
The 2026 NFL Draft class has become extremely weak overall. In many ways, the quarterback class is very symbolic of the group as a whole. At one point, there was a lot of hope for the quarterback class, but with players returning to school and others not playing well with preseason hype, it has become a Fernando Mendoza or bust situation.
At one point during the 2025 college football season, many expected former Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson to be selected near the top of the class. That may still happen due to quarterback demand and a lack of supply, but it doesn’t feel warranted right now. Along with fellow A to Z Sports NFL Draft analyst Joe DeLeone, we debated the merits of Simpson being drafted early.
While DeLeone and I did see some things eye to eye, it was anything but a complete agreement. Here is the latest on Simpson and the continued debate that he creates.
DeLeone’s take on Ty Simpson
Even if this year’s quarterback class were stronger, Simpson would have still likely been a first-round pick.
The quarterback class this year is abysmal, with limited options for teams looking for a young face to build around. Not only does the class lack names worth taking in the top ten, but it also lacks projects with traits to build around for Day 2.
Simpson, to me, falls somewhere between the two categories: an obvious early pick and a Day 2 project. His best tape is that of a first-round prospect, as he flashed natural playmaking ability. His ability to throw on the run, his poise, and his decisiveness make him a starter in the NFL.
However, his lack of experience as a one-year starter accentuates his inconsistent decision-making. Ultimately, his decision-making issues are redeemable if he’s given the proper time to develop and grow.
This discussion regarding Simpson’s draft projection has little to do with a lack of tools and more with a lack of consistent, high-quality tape. Alabama hit a rough patch at the end of the season due to its offensive line struggling and its run game disappearing. As a result, Simpson struggled, and it seemed he had to do everything to keep them afloat.
Quarterbacks go in the first round because they have the tools to be starters in the NFL. Simpson has them, but just requires patience. Where he’s picked in the first round may ultimately be inflated by significant demand and limited supply.
Roberts’ take on Ty Simpson
There were some positive moments for Simpson in 2025, starting the season off with a couple really nice performances. The redshirt junior had a rough middle stretch of the season, and remained spotty down the stretch of the year. While it was a very up and down season for Simpson, there is still some hope for the future. That was assuming that Simpson returned for his final season.
Simpson opted, instead, to enter the 2026 NFL Draft. With only 15 starts on the college level, you’re betting on the worst type of outlier with Simpson. The track record of quarterbacks with that low number of starts is not a list you want to be a part of, which includes Mitchell Trubisky and Mark Sanchez. Experience matters at the quarterback position, and Simpson lacks it.
When we talk about betting on outliers, people are going to take chances on players with stellar traits. Not only does Simpson lack that experience, he also has nothing more than solid NFL tools. His arm is good, but not stellar. Simpson moves well, but he is anything but a dynamic athlete. I’m not sure what you’re betting on here.
If we were talking about a Day Two (rounds 2-3) dart throw with Simpson, I’d be completely fine with taking that chance. Drafting inside of the first round, however, feels misguided and ill advised. There’s some upside to be excited about, but not enough to ignore the obvious warning signs.
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