This time of the year, everyone wants to talk about mock drafts, wild free agency predictions, and the latest bold trade idea brought up by any analyst on TV. But what about the actual things that are for sure going to happen? Some fans just want to be prepared for that. Well, I’ve got Dallas Cowboys fans covered with these five boring yet accurate predictions ahead of free agency.

*Note: Accurate may be an overstatement, as I don’t know for sure what will or won’t happen. But these are things I feel are 90%+ likely to happen. Now let’s talk some football.

1. Brandon Aubrey will be extended

Aubrey is a restricted free agent, meaning the Cowboys could technically assign an RFA tender for him. But considering kicker is a relatively cheap position, it makes sense for everyone involved to sign him to a long-term deal now.

The highest-paid kicker in the NFL right now is Harrison Butker at $6.4 million per year, per Over The Cap. I’d expect Aubrey to land in the $7 million average per year range with at least two seasons of fully guaranteed money.

The Cowboys were lucky to find Aubrey. Let’s hope they’re smart enough to keep him.

2. George Pickens will be franchise tagged

The Cowboys are now allowed to franchise tag Pickens, and it’s the worst kept secret they will do so. What happens after that, is anyone’s guess.

The Cowboys have said they want to keep Pickens long term, but agent David Mulugheta—who also represents Micah Parsons—is unlikely to agree to anything that is under $30 million per year. Can he and the Cowboys find middle ground? If not, is a trade a possibility?

If the Cowboys want to show they’re serious about winning now, they must extend Pickens. It will be easier said than done. For now, a tag will buy them time as they’ll keep the wide receiver from hitting the open market.

3. Jalen Tolbert won’t be re-signed

Speaking of wide receivers, former third-round pick Jalen Tolbert is likely on his way out the door. With Pickens and CeeDee Lamb leading the offense, the expectation was Tolbert would settle in nicely at WR3. Instead, it was second-year receiver Ryan Flournoy who thrived in the spot.

Tolbert’s play was inconsistent in four years in Dallas, and he could use a fresh start somewhere else. I doubt the Cowboys bring him back.

4. Cowboys will focus on defense

Who knows what Jerry Jones really means when he says the Cowboys are incentivized to bust the budget. Maybe he means large, splash signings. Maybe low-cost starting veterans. Or maybe it will be the same old, same old bargain additions.

I cannot predict that. But what I can say is I’d heavily expect the Cowboys to focus on defense in free agency. Right now, they need everything except defensive tackles. A big name to watch is LB Nakobe Dean, who could reunite with Christian Parker, the new Cowboys defensive coordinator.

5. Two OL that will be easily re-signed

We just mentioned Aubrey being worth a long-term extension even as an RFA, but there is one other RFA I fully expect the Cowboys to tender: interior offensive linemen Brock Hoffman.

A right of first refusal tender is projected to cost $3.5 million. That’s worth it for a high-end backup who can play center and guard in a pinch. Hoffman is one of the best bench players on the Cowboys and is probably worth the investment.

Another RFA to watch is T.J. Bass, who is also a good backup but the price of the tender might be too steep. I would still expect him to be kept in Dallas on a minimum value deal.

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