The Indianapolis Colts experienced many highs and lows during the 2025 season. Sadly, the last thing on fans’ minds is the dreadful seven-game losing streak. So now they have no choice but to attack this offseason and try to get rid of that sour taste in their mouths by making sure their 2026 season is successful.

There are big questions surrounding the team’s future, first of all, whether they will be able to bring back key in-house free agents: quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce. But even if they do retain them, that won’t be enough, as the team’s defensive side of the ball has some glaring holes on paper.

Before all the action gets kicked off today with the NFL’s legal tampering period starting at 12 p.m. Eastern, I decided to share my official prediction for how the Colts’ 2026 free agency will shake out. Who will they sign, who will they lose? Both of those questions are answered below.

Colts get deals done with Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce

The Colts have been working to get deals done with both Jones and Pierce ahead of legal tampering. Do they get a deal with either before noon today? I’m skeptical, but there’s certainly a chance. I do think, in the end, both players will be back with the Colts for the 2026 season.

The team has the chance to match any offer Jones gets on the open market thanks to their decision to place the transition tag on the quarterback. There are rumblings that Jones’ camp has made a very large yearly price demand to the Colts. Personally, I will believe it when I see it that there will be a long list of teams lining up to pay a QB coming off a torn Achilles $40+ million annually.

Pierce, on the other hand, I think is going to have a very robust market with multiple teams interested. In a perfect world, the Colts and Pierce get a deal done before noon, and he never talks to other teams. I believe Pierce wants to be a Colt, as long as the money is the same. So if he goes out and finds his market value, I would expect the Colts to make a strong push to match whatever his largest offer is to keep the NFL’s best deep threat in Indianapolis.

Contract predictions
Daniel Jones: 3-year $115 million worth up to $130 million, 80 million guaranteed
Alec Pierce: 3-year $85 million worth up to $90 million, 60 guaranteed

Colts create cap space to not only sign Pierce but also make multiple additional moves

Heading into Monday, the Colts aren’t even cap compliant due to their trade involving Zaire Franklin not being able to be made official until the new league year begins on March 11. This means at least one more cap-saving move will occur, but I think the Colts plan on creating more cap space than that.

One way they will do this is by getting Jones on an actual contract instead of the tag, which will allow them to avoid carrying his current 2026 cap hit. If Pierce is back, I also think the team will find a way out of Michael Pittman Jr.’s current $29 million cap hit. Now, does that mean a cut/trade or just a reworked contract? I think all three would be on the table as options.

I also think we will see the Colts restructure other contracts and try to pull off some extensions to create more space. The team knows they have to do everything in their power to keep Jones and Pierce, but they also have multiple major defensive needs that must be addressed if they want any chance of contending for a playoff spot in 2026.

Colts don’t land the big fish EDGE signing in Trey Hendrickson, but add needed youth to the room

The Colts have been linked to Cincinnati Bengals star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson for a little over a year now. He is now a free agent, and the team can pursue him, and I expect them to make a run at the NFL’s 2024 sack leader. Ultimately, I expect his market to exceed the Colts’ price range. That doesn’t mean that I think the Colts will bypass making moves at the position. In fact, I think they end up signing two players.

Right now, the Colts’ edge room is pretty bare; the only actual contributors from last year’s team still under contract are Laiatu Latu and JT Tuimoloau. Therefore, the team is going to need to make multiple moves to add to the room this offseason. And I envision them adding two in free agency with K’Lavon Chaisson of the New England Patriots and Kingsley Enagbare from the Green Bay Packers.

I think these two players combined will make less than Hendrickson annually, and they better fit the “younger and faster” slogan that general manager Chris Ballard has coined for their efforts to improve the defensive side of the ball. The bigger fish here of the two is Chaisson, who played the best football of his career down the stretch with the Patriots. He set his new career high with 7.5 sacks and 54 pressures in the regular season, and he had the second most sacks and pressures by any player during the 2025 NFL playoffs with 18 pressures and three sacks.

Chaisson is a former first-round pick and is still only 26 years old (will turn 27 in July). He really started to come into his own last year, and I think the Colts could offer him the chance to build off that in a larger role next season. I also have the Colts signing Enagbare from the Packers to reunite him with his former teammate Colby Wooden, who the team acquired by trading away Franklin. Enagbare hasn’t had a major role in Green Bay, but he’s had some flashes, and his brute strength is undeniable on film. I think he’s a guy Lou Anarumo would love to have as a rotational edge rusher.

Contract predictions
K’Lavon Chaisson: 2-year $20 million worth up to $25 million
Kingsley Enagbare: 2-year $8 million worth up to $12 million

K’Lavon Chaisson’s career resurgence continues, as do CJ Stroud’s turnover issues. pic.twitter.com/ButWCQojmm

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) January 18, 2026

Colts don’t retain Nick Cross, Braden Smith, or Kwity Paye

While I think the Colts will find a way to keep their top two in-house free agents, I do think the team will lose three major contributors from last year’s team. When the dust settles on NFL free agency, I think the Colts will see safety Nick Cross, edge rusher Kwity Paye, and right tackle Braden Smith sign elsewhere to continue their careers.

The biggest blows here would be seeing Cross, who is still only 24 years old, walk alongside their long-time starting right tackle, Smith. Ultimately, I think all three of these players will get bigger offers elsewhere, which will lead to their time in Indianapolis coming to an end. To take this prediction a step further, I decided to share my guesses on where each of these players will sign in free agency.

Landing spot predictions
Nick Cross: Cincinnati Bengals
Kwity Paye: Detroit Lions
Braden Smith: Dallas Cowboys

Colts sign Kyle Dugger to replace Nick Cross and Nakobe Dean to replace Zaire Franklin

Two more signings for you to round up an active free agency haul for the Colts. Losing Cross and Franklin take away Anarumo’s top two options for their green dot on the defensive side of the ball. The team could look to fill that role in the upcoming draft, but I think it’s more likely they turn to free agency and add players with league experience.

First up, I have safety Kyle Dugger, whom the Pittsburgh Steelers traded for last season. Dugger is a former second-round pick who spent the first five years of his career with the Patriots before being traded during year six to Pittsburgh.

He would be a cheaper safety option for the Colts, who have experience playing in the box and would be able to do a lot of the things Cross was asked to do in Anarumo’s defense. He wouldn’t check the younger box for the Colts as he turns 30 later this month, but I do think he makes a lot of sense for the team because he could play right away, and the door would still be open for the team to draft a safety in April.

The more exciting move of these two would be the signing of former Philadelphia Eagles third-round pick linebacker Nakobe Dean. Dean just turned 26 in December and has had some fun flashes with the Eagles. The Colts can give him a full-time starting job, and I think there’s a world where he could end up wearing the green for Anarumo. He has some real pass-rush juice and possesses fantastic athleticism that would add much-needed speed to the Colts LB room going forward. The big thing will be him staying healthy, because he made a major impact for the Eagles in 2024, which was the only year he started more than eight games in a season in his career.

Contract predictions
Kyle Dugger: 2-year, $9 million
Nakobe Dean: 3-years $21 million worth up to $27 million

Indianapolis Colts News

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Destin Adams