Titans have the best chance to break historical NFL trend with Jeremiyah Love even with the top-5 running back risk being real

History is not kind to teams who draft a running back at the top of the NFL Draft. Here is why the Titans’ case to be an exception is strong

Easton Freeze — Tennessee Titans Beat Writer
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Drafting a running back in the top 10 is scary. Or at least, it should be.

That’s a decision the Titans, amongst others at the top of the draft, are considering right now. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love is easily the best offensive player in this draft and is arguably the best overall player in this draft. He’s the kind of weapon who’s irresistible to think about adding to a Cam Ward offense. There’s no doubt he would help, and very little doubt about how his game will translate to the pros.

But no matter how hard you work to justify taking a running back at 4th overall—and there are some strong arguments, including this one I recently wrote about—you always have to end the discussion with “…and that’s why it will be different for us.”

What history tells us about Jeremiyah Love to the Titans

One of the great thinkers of our time is the character Tobias Funke from Arrested Development. He once famously discussed the prospects of an open marriage with his wife Lindsay, and she asked “Did it ever work for these people?” to which Tobias replied “No. It never does. I mean these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might. But……it might work for us.”

This is ultimately the argument the Titans must make if they take a swing on a running back this high in the draft. Because history paints a pretty clear picture on this kind of choice. There is, however, a difference between the Titans and the teams we’re about to talk about. And it’s not unreasonable to argue that this difference… well, makes all the difference.

Since 2010, we’ve seen nine running backs come off the board in the top 10. Here they are:

Ashton Jeanty20256th overallLas Vegas RaidersGeno Smith
Bijan Robinson20248th overallAtlanta FalconsDesmond Ridder
Saquon Barkley20182nd overallNew York GiantsEli Manning
Leonard Fournette20174th overallJacksonville JaguarsBlake Bortles
Christian McCaffrey20178th overallCarolina PanthersCam Newton
Ezekiel Elliott20164th overallDallas CowboysDak Prescott
Todd Gurley201510th overallSt. Louis RamsNick Foles
Trent Richardson20123rd overallCleveland BrownsBrandon Weeden
CJ Spiller20109th overallBuffalo BillsRyan Fitzpatrick

A couple of things are crystal clear when you read this list. First, the good news is that the hit rate on these players being good in the NFL is very high! Not that there was much concern about Jeremiyah Love being a good back, but the track record here is strong. Second, the teams these guys joined were bad and stayed bad for the most part. The pantheon of high-level franchises you’d be joining by taking Love at 4 includes the Falcons, Giants, Jaguars, Browns, Raiders, and crappy 2010’s Bills and Rams. The Cowboys are, let’s be honest, just the Cowboys. We all know how that story goes.

So yes, the Titans would need to be a historical outlier here. Because these backs largely came into the league, were certified good players, and their teams continued to suck. The impact value is an impossible question to ignore. Running back is a position that is fundamentally a finishing piece. That’s because it’s so dependent on everything around it, especially the blocking prowess of the OL.

The big difference here that could be why the Titans hope to be the exception is that they feel they have their guy at QB. That’s the other element of a running back’s surroundings that they lean heavily on. The force multiplication you get by having a dangerous QB and a dangerous RB is the key. And the only team on this list that, in hindsight, actually had their guy already was Carolina with Cam Newton. But even he was starting to break down physically, and his reign didn’t last much longer. Eli Manning was on his very last leg, the Cowboys didn’t know what they had in Dak Prescott yet, and Geno Smith imploded. The rest of the list is self-explanatory.

So if the Titans are right about having their young franchise QB in Cam Ward, maybe that’s what what will make it work for them this time.

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