My favorite thing about the NFL is the parity. The hope that just about any fanbase can have, that this is our year! That hope comes from annual examples of bad teams going from worst-to-first, and defending champions experiencing an immediate humbling. We are constantly reminded that “NFL” actually stands for “Not For Long”.

Along those lines, here is an interesting trend to consider: for the past seven years, at least one team selecting in the top-5 of the NFL Draft has gone on to make the playoffs the following season. Who could that be this year? Let’s discuss.

Odds of making the playoffs for top-5 drafting teams

Here’s who has managed this giant leap so far:

• 2025: Jacksonville Jaguars (5th traded), New England Patriots (4th, Super Bowl)
• 2024: Los Angeles Chargers (5th)
• 2023: Houston Texans (2nd)
• 2022: Jacksonville Jaguars (1st)
• 2021: Cincinnati Bengals (4th, Super Bowl)
• 2020: Washington Football Team (2nd)
• 2019: San Francisco 49ers (2nd, Super Bowl)

What’s just as impressive as all the playoff berths is the fact that three of these teams went all the way to Super Bowl. There have been some real rags to riches stories lately. So who can become the eighth team in as many years to reach the postseason this year? If you ask me, two teams have far better odds than the other three.

The Cardinals at 3 stand the worst chance. They have a new coach and no answer at QB, while playing in the most difficult division in football. They’re already on to 2027. In a very similar boat is the New York Jets picking 2nd, whose QB this year is a downtrodden Geno Smith. Their division isn’t as competitive, but their coach might be the most pre-fired person in the entire NFL right now. They stand very little chance.

A step up, though still a real longshot, is the Las Vegas Raiders at 1. Their QB solution in currently in the mail and will soon be out for delivery, but once Fernando Mendoza arrives, he is expected to sit behind Kirk Cousins for some time. New coach plus new QB typically equals some real growing pains.

This brings us to the Titans picking 4th and the Giants picking 5th. Both have new coaches taking over franchises who hope to be on the upswing powered by promising Year 2 QBs. Both are in divisions that have real competition, but aren’t full of juggernauts either. A path to the playoffs for either can reasonably be imagined if these QBs pop. So who has the better chance?

I have to lean the Titans based on how I feel about each QB. I was actually pleasantly surprised by how put-together Jaxson Dart looked as a rookie. I think he could pan out in this league, which isn’t something I thought was very likely when he was drafted. But I see true top-10 potential in Cam Ward, and I like the floor-raising the Titans have done around him in the immediate a tad more than the situation Dart is playing in.

To be clear, I don’t think the Titans have a great shot at the playoffs just yet. But If you made me pick one of the teams in the top-5 to make that jump like we continue to see happen, I’m taking Tennessee and praying Cam Ward has a supernova Year 2 breakout. We have seen it happen before…