2026 NFL Draft Prospect Debate: Experts are torn on the role and value of hyper athletic defenders at the next level
The 2026 NFL Draft is upon us, and there is a wide range of variance on multiple prospects. One of those is Oregon Ducks safety Dillon Thieneman, who blew up his draft stock after a great NFL Scouting Combine.
The NFL Draft is less than two weeks away, and there are some interesting prospect debates.
While consensus is the best measure for each individual player, given the wisdom of crowds, being above or below consensus can highlight the positives and negatives of each prospect.
The first of our series highlights Oregon Ducks safety Dillon Thieneman. He ranks 21st overall on the A to Z Sports consensus big board, which is highlighted in our mock draft simulator.
AJ Schulte and I, Tyler Forness, are on opposite ends of the spectrum with Thieneman, and we make our case why we are high and low on him.
The case for Dillon Thieneman
AJ Schulte’s ranking: 9th overall
Dillon Thieneman was a pleasant surprise on film, whose game I grew to appreciate more as I dug in. I think he’s a rare safety prospect who can fulfill multiple roles for a defense. As a post safety, Thieneman has the burst and range to cover plenty of ground, and he has the instincts to quickly click and close on plays. His processing is second-to-none in this safety class, and his route recognition was ahead of several NFL players in my eyes. Even against condensed looks and bunch sets, Thieneman was quick to sort through the traffic and be in the right spots for his assignment, and always found himself around the ball. He can be a post safety, he can be your hash, he can stick as a robber. Oregon even had him in the slot, and I thought he looked plenty capable there as well.
Thieneman’s run defense is where I worry the most, but even that is a good area of his game. His ability to sift through traffic is an asset when closing on run plays, as he steps around blockers well. He’s quick to trigger and takes good angles in pursuit. Where I have the most concerns is I think his frame is mostly maxed out, and his technique as a tackler needs to improve. There were some occasional lapses when tackling out in space on an island.
However, the rest of his game is enough to outweigh the concerns I have there. I think this is a capable, true Swiss Army Knife defender who can fulfill multiple roles with strong ability. He would be an asset for virtually every defensive coach, and he has Pro Bowl-caliber upside. – AJ Schulte
The case against Dillon Thieneman
Tyler Forness’ ranking: 47th overall
I am not a big fan of Thieneman overall. On tape, I didn’t think his athleticism popped nearly as much as the NFL Scouting Combine testing. It might be different if his tape showed a player who was 4.35 explosive, like the testing showed, but it didn’t for me. He also wasn’t someone I loved in coverage, which is a big selling point of Thieneman from other analysts. The idea that he should play single high going into the NFL when Oregon explicitly tried to keep him out of those situations baffles me. When I watched the tape, I saw a player who would overcommit his hips and not display ample catch-up speed when he got beaten.
The other main concern I have with Thieneman was his work in the box. He does a great job of identifying what the offense is doing, but his small stature would get him run over consistently. Essentially, his profile shows a player who isn’t big or strong enough for the box, nor someone I want playing single high consistently. If you run a Vic Fangio-style defense and have him playing from the roof, I can see the vision. If you want him doing just about anything else, I wouldn’t take him until later on day two, as I have a very high third-round grade on Thieneman. That’s still a capable starter, but I don’t see an elite difference maker on film. – Tyler Forness
