It’s an annual fascination of mine to see which players get the biggest late-stage stock boosts and slumps in the draft media. The news cycle churns fast and furious in the final days before Round 1 commences, and a lot of the flow is dictated by leaks and intentional narrative shaping by team sources. It’s the murky information soup we collectively refer to as “lying season”.

But Titans GM Mike Borgonzi told the truth about something today. I know it’s the truth because it’s a verifiable fact, but I think it contains a broader point that’s going mostly unnoticed. I’m talking about one of the answers he gave at his pre-draft press conference on Thursday. He was asked about how premium a position the linebackers are in head coach Robert Saleh’s defense, and I think the answer he gave was telling.

The truth about Robert Saleh’s successful linebackers

“Well, he certainly had a lot of success with linebackers he’s had in San Francisco, the Jets, even his time back in Seattle with those guys’” Borgonzi said.

Everybody knows Saleh for his defensive success over the years, and there’s no doubt he’s maximized some fantastic LB talent. That’s the internal part of why Ohio State LB Sonny Styles was the implied subject of this question. The external part of why Styles is being asked about harkens back to the beginning of this piece: the NFL Draft prospect stock exchange.

Styles’ stock as a blue chip LB prospect has been high all along. But in just the past couple of days, the buzz behind him being a potential top 3-5 pick has reached a fever pitch. In a strange class defined by elite players at non-premium positions, the notion that we should all just throw out positional value this time around has seemingly taken over. I think we’ve gone a bit overboard in that regard, and have lost sight of the range of outcomes for a phenomenal LB prospect like Styles.

It’s true, he’s incredible. He tested legitimately off the charts. This is why Borgonzi struggled to think of a decent comparison for him at the presser. And I think his upside is a high as any linebacker prospect we’ve seen come through since at least Luke Kuechly. But it’s also true that off-ball linebacker is one of the least impactful positions in the sport. In fact, I think it is the least impactful of any offensive or defensive starter. They’re very important to get right, and can be what holds together an entire defensive unit at times, but their range of play-to-play impact is the smallest.

That’s why I don’t think Styles will live up to a top 3-5 draft pick status unless he is literally Fred Warner. And as much as I love the prospect, what are the sober odds of that happening? Even still, from a predictive standpoint, I refuse to count him out. I think he is one of four players with legitimate odds to be drafted 4th overall by this team. David Bailey, Arvell Reese, Jeremiyah Love, and Sonny Styles. And if Bailey and Reese are gone by the fourth pick, then it comes down to him and Love. I see Love as the favorite, but Reese is still there!

Let’s get back to what Borgonzi actually said here, because I think his reference to Saleh’s success (perhaps accidentally) makes an important point. The best linebackers in Saleh’s time as an NFL coach is a list that looks more or less like this:

• Fred Warner- 3rd Round , 70th overall
• Dre Greenlaw- 5th Round, 148th overall
• Quincy Williams- 3rd Round, 98th overall
• DeMeco Ryans- 2nd Round, 33rd overall
• CJ Mosley- 1st Round, 17th overall
• Telvin Smith- 5th Round, 144th overall
• Paul Posluszny- 2nd Round, 34th overall
• Kwon Alexander- 4th Round, 124th overall
• Azeez Al-Shaair- UDFA

Notice how none of these guys are top-5, top-10, or even first round picks at all besides Mosley? In fact, his most prolific linebackers weren’t taken in the first two rounds!

Now that doesn’t mean you can’t take a good linebacker in the first round to pair with Saleh anyways. Of course not. The point here is that you can find high-level LB talent far further down the board than 4th overall, and Saleh has a rock-solid track record of maximizing the talent of these players! If anything, Saleh’s history is a reason to take somebody other than Styles at 4–not a reason to take him.