Here’s a good place to start: I don’t think Dallas Cowboys fans should panic about the George Pickens situation. Yet.

Last week, yes. You should have panicked. I panicked, and even wrote about why it seemed like Pickens was firmly on the trade block. Getting pre-draft news about Pickens agreeing to sign the tag was potentially major, as it could have meant the wide receiver could have been traded during the draft.

However, Pickens didn’t sign it the moment reports emerged (and hasn’t signed it yet, more on that later), so it turns out it was never an option over the weekend.

While that part has been cleared up, the confusion around Pickens’ current situation remains. And the latest update doesn’t help.

Pickens hasn’t signed the tag

Pickens has yet to sign his franchise tag as of Monday, according to ESPN’s Todd Archer. That’s despite last week’s reports indicating he is set to do so. The specific “when” he’s going to sign it remains a mystery.

Pickens could sign it at any point. But the reason why we care about the timing right now is that on Monday, the Cowboys started voluntary workouts. A potential explanation for Pickens planning to sign the tag could be he plans to show up for the offseason. But at least for the first (voluntary) day, he wasn’t.

Pickens’ voluntary participation always sounded unlikely and the fact that he hasn’t signed the tag yet indicates that was wishful thinking. As of Monday morning, Pickens was not in the building per Dallas Morning News’ Joe Hoyt.

Per Hoyt though, the expectation remains he signs the tag. Additionally, the Cowboys said after the NFL Draft that they have “zero intention” of trading Pickens. But that leads us to a pressing question that makes the situation very blurry.

Why is Pickens signing the tag at all?

At the heart of the confusion is Pickens’ incentive to sign the tag. It is very hard to understand why he would agree to do it now, regardless of when he actually does it. The Cowboys said prior to the draft they didn’t plan to negotiate a long-term deal with Pickens.

Here’s the thing: If he doesn’t sign the tag, the Cowboys can’t fine him even if he misses training camp. Heck, he can even miss regular season games (as long as he signs and shows up to Week 10, which would get him an accrued season to hit free agency next year).

So what does he really gain by signing the tag? Why break the news about it on Thursday right before the NFL Draft? Below are three possible explanations.

1. Despite the Cowboys’ stance on not wanting to trade him, it’s still a strong explanation. If he signs the tag, Dallas can trade Pickens to a team willing to sign him to a long-term extension, which would appeal to the wide receiver. Now that the draft is in the rearview mirror, trade buzz is slowing down but it could still happen.
2. Until he signs the tag, the Cowboys could rescind it. It’s possible his camp worried it was possibility if Dallas picked a wide receiver in the first round. But, that explanation felt like a stretch at first and since it wasn’t signed before the draft, it is a moot point now.
3. Pickens could simply be betting on himself and planning to show up for the Cowboys offseason, even if a bit later on. It sounds unlikely, I know, but what if he’s listening to the advice of Dak Prescott? Bet on yourself, prepare as much as possible for a contract year that could make you the highest-paid receiver ever one year from now?

The Cowboys have been clear in saying they don’t plan to trade Pickens. But if you asked me regardless of their words, which of the three options above seems more plausible, I would easily say No. 1.

Could things change?

Let’s say Pickens signs the tag in the near future. Is a trade viable? ESPN’s Adam Schefter went on the Pat McAfee Show to discuss Pickens’ future and brought up several noteworthy tidbits including that teams got calls about a potential trade.

“I do believe that there were people that were trying to get him traded during the draft,” Schefter said. “Teams got calls about but nothing materialized. I don’t think it’s entirely off the table that at some point in time he could be traded even though the Cowboys have been adamant that they have no plans to trade him.”

While a trade isn’t off the table, Pickens would have to sign the tag first.

So what’s next? First, figuring out when Pickens actually signs the tag. From there, monitoring if he shows up to mandatory minicamp and later, training camp. If he shows full commitment in workouts, it could mean he’s simply gearing up for the biggest year of his career.

If he holds in or holds out, expect trade buzz to pick back up.