5 way-too-early predictions for the Commanders’ 2026 season: Expect a Jayden Daniels bounce back and a step forward on defense
Free agency and the NFL Draft are out of the way, so that means it’s full steam ahead for the 2026 season. So, why not go ahead and hit the Commanders with some way-too-early predictions now that the dust has settled?
We are in that semi-dead period ahead of Washington Commanders rookie minicamp, so why not have some fun and dish out some way-too-early predictions for the upcoming season?
It’s pretty self-explanatory in nature, so let’s not waste anymore time and dive right in.
5 way-too-early predictions for the Commanders’ 2026 season
1. Jayden Daniels will return to his previous top-QB status
This prediction obviously lies under the condition of Daniels staying healthy. Regardless, expect him to return the electric 2024 form we saw two seasons ago.
The reason is simple: He’s simply far too talented and dedicated to improving his game for it to go otherwise. 2024 was not a fluke, nor a flash in the pan. What we saw was legitimate football being played at a near-elite level.
Yes, the Commanders could’ve done more to improve the weapons around him, mainly in the receiver room. However, I think new offensive coordinator David Blough is going to lean more on the running game, which will help offset the lack of weapons outside of Terry McLaurin.
That’s what Daniels needs, too. He doesn’t need to carry the team like he did in 2024 and I think the Commanders learned a big lesson last year regarding their overuse of Daniels. Either way, he’ll return to the dynamic form we saw in 2024 and that raises the Commanders’ ceiling to different heights.
2. The Commanders defense finishes top-10 in sacks
Dan Quinn was able to squeeze 42 sacks out of his defense last year, which tied for 12th-most. While you always want to be better, the final number was impressive when considering it came to be without a true difference-maker in the pass rush department.
Well, that won’t be the case in 2026. The Commanders added plenty of guys who can get after it in Odafe Oweh, K’Lavon Chaisson, Tim Settle, and Charles Omenihu via free agency. Those four veterans bring a combined 19.5 sacks over from last season, with both Oweh and Chaisson contributing 7.5, each.
Leo Chenal and Sonny Styles are also in the mix at the second level (as well as Frankie Luvu). Folks already believe Chenal’s role will be similar to that of Andrew Van Ginkel, who’s recorded 18.5 sacks, himself, over the last two seasons. Styles was a very effective blitzer in college and that should translate over to the NFL.
It took 45.0 sacks to crack the top-10 last year. There’s no doubt in my mind the Commanders will find their way inside that group by season’s end.
3. The secondary will struggle, again
I do expect the Commanders’ front seven to be a pretty effective unit. Especially if Styles hits the ground running like we all think he will.
The secondary, however, is a concern. The concerns and questions range from top-to-bottom, as well.
Will Trey Amos step up after an OK rookie season that ended early due to injury? Can Mike Sainristil bounce back and return to his 2024 form? The same goes for Amik Robertson, who had a down 2025 season, himself.
Then there’s all kinds of depth questions after those top guys. A major injury to any of the starting three quickly opens up the floodgates for opposing passing attacks. And, If the answers to any of the above questions end in negative fashion, the defense as a whole will suffer.
Outside of Quan Martin, the safety position is composed of players who are better off in the box. Martin is the only one who has the range to play centerfield at a consistent rate, but, we are all familiar with his 2025 struggles, too.
I just don’t think the Commanders have the horses in the secondary and that will pose problems, even with a highly improved front seven.
4. Josh Conerly Jr. continues his ascension from Weeks 9-18 and is a fringe Pro Bowler
Man, the first two months of the season were rough for Conerly Jr. Per Pro Football Focus, he allowed six sacks, 28 pressures, and posted a 94.0 pass block efficiency rating from Weeks 1-8.
Those numbers ranked last, second-to-last, and second-to-last among 50 qualifying tackles with at least 315 blocking snaps over that span. If you’re into grades, Conerly Jr.’s 47.1 overall blocking grade ranked second-to-last and that included a dead-last pass blocking grade of 47.2. He didn’t fare much better in the run blocking department, either.
Things really changed from Weeks 9-18, though. Conerly Jr. allowed just two sacks and 15 pressures. His pass block efficiency rating jumped to 97.0, as well. Those numbers ranked 20th, 17th, and 20th out of the 50 qualifying tackles with at least 427 blocking snaps.
All of a sudden, Conerly Jr. was playing starter-level football. I think a big part of what helped is the Commanders were far more balanced over that span and it helped him settle down a bit.
The Commanders should remain balanced under new offensive coordinator David Blough and he should add more elements like under-center snaps and play-action to help the offensive line.
Watch for his trajectory to continue this season and while it’d be a huge jump to see him earn a Pro Bowl nod, it’s not out of the question.
5. Jaylin Lane leads the league in punt return touchdowns again
The Commanders knew exactly what they were getting in Lane when they drafted him last year and he didn’t disappoint. Lane finished the year with two punt return touchdowns, which tied for the league lead.
His 314 punt return yards were good for eighth-most and his average of 13.7 yards per punt return finished fifth-best. Lane immediately added a dynamic element that opposing teams have to account for.
Look for Lane to make even more big plays in 2026. The kid is a dynamic, smooth returner that can make anyone miss at any time and Larry Izzo will continue to develop those skills.
If he can add a kick return element to his game, then the Commanders could have a perennial Pro Bowl returner for the foreseeable future. Either way, he won’t tie for the league lead in punt returns this year – he’ll take it for his own.