The Dallas Cowboys’ schedule comes out tonight but they were already dealt a tough hand leading up to it, and it’s what matters most
We’re about to find out what the Dallas Cowboys’ 2026 NFL Schedule looks like. But if we’re being honest, we’ve had the most important information for a while now. And it’s a tough hand for Dallas.
I get it, I get it. The NFL loves to make a big deal out of its yearly schedule release and the Dallas Cowboys are often at the center of it. After all, three decades plus of not making the NFC Championship Game haven’t keep them from remaining the league’s ratings monster.
But while I’m excited to learn what the season will look like, I believe the most important information on the Cowboys schedule is already out: Strength of schedule. The real one, not the traditional one.
And it’s a tough hand for the Cowboys.
Cowboys to face fourth toughest schedule
Strength of schedule is overrated if you’re looking at the previous year’s standings to determine it. After all, teams overhaul rosters, hire new coaches every year. We can’t make a big deal about how the NFL has plenty of new playoff teams every season only to turn around and act like things stay the same.
However, strength of schedule based on projected win totals is absolutely worth it. No, the betting odds aren’t right about everything and the game still finds ways to surprise us. But on average? They’re shockingly accurate.
Sharp Football does a great job projecting each team’s strength of schedule this way, and according to its data, the Cowboys have the fourth-toughest schedule this season.
The truth is that fact is nothing to sneeze at. Strength of schedule may be one of the biggest reasons why the Cowboys are barely projected to have a .500 record at 8.5 projected wins.
“In 2025, just 2 of 8 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs (Texans, Rams),” writes Sharp. “That list included the Vikings and the Chiefs.”
Here’s the kicker
The Cowboys will have to overcome a tough schedule despite not winning the NFC East while the Eagles cruise to the seventh-easiest schedule in the league.
Philadelphia is one of the most complete teams in the league and (potentially) losing A.J. Brown will only blur things up for them. But they already have a significant advantage in the division sweepstakes and they’re in a significant spot to take advantage of it.
The schedule release later today will do a better job showing the toughest and easiest stretches of the season. But at the end of the day, we’ve had the most important intel for a while now.