NFL projection guru predicts huge breakout year for several Detroit Lions offensive players, but somehow a huge step back for Jared Goff
The stat projections for the Lions are out, and the team is expected to be very good, but maybe not as explosive as we’ve seen them be
The 2026 Detroit Lions’ season is 115 days away, and now that we’re entering the dead zone, this is usually when ESPN’s stats and analytics guru Mike Clay will do his annual projections for the season.
Usually, he’s pretty spot on in some areas and then really off in other areas. Today, I want to take a look at some of the highs and the lows he has had for the Lions’ offense in 2026.
The projections team-wise are very good
Clay has the Lions as one of the best teams in the NFL in 2026. He has them with a projected 12 wins. That would make them the second seed in the NFC behind only the Rams with a projected 13.2 wins. They would have the second-best record in the NFL as a whole.
He has the Lions scoring 452 points. That would be fourth in the league behind the Rams, Bills, and Cowboys.
The individual projections are pretty good, too
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the league with 14 rushing touchdowns, but he’s fifth in rushing yards with 1,328. That’s not bad, just feels like it should be a bit more. He also leads the league in touchdowns from scrimmage and is second in yards from scrimmage. Amon-Ra St. Brown is third in receptions with 118, fourth in receptions with 1,430, and fourth in touchdowns with 10.
Jared Goff is second in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. I know that I mentioned a big step back in the headline, and it doesn’t look like it here. But he has him projected to throw for 4,200 yards. That’s nearly 400 yards less than what he had in 2025 and nearly 500 yards less than in 2024. He has him throwing 29 touchdowns. That would be the fewest touchdowns he’s thrown since 2022. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s a pretty conservative projection. It also kind of means that the projections ahead of him must be pretty conservative, too.
Projections for other players look pretty good, too, even if they aren’t leading the league
Jameson Williams is projected to put up a third 1,000-yard season, even if Clay has him stepping back a hair with 1,069 yards. He also has six receiving touchdowns. This is pretty in line with what he’s been doing.
Isiah Pacheco is not putting up gigantic numbers, but if he gets the projected 679 yards and five touchdowns, that is pretty good for a backup. He’s got Sam LaPorta netting 788 yards and five touchdowns.
The only one I’ll push back on is Isaac TeSlaa with 24 receptions for 302 yards and three touchdowns. He’s not getting 1,000 yards or anything like that, but I’m projecting him to at least hit 500 yards. I also think he’ll be utilized a lot in the red zone, which could help him get more touchdowns.
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