What will Carnell Tate be for the Tennessee Titans in his rookie year?

That’s the question that hangs over the head of his young career already, before he’s even seen his first NFL Sunday. Nobody was expecting to see Tate taken fourth overall when the Titans took him in the 2026 NFL draft. He was a lock top 10 pick, there’s no doubt about that. But forth overall? This draft status triggered a particularly annoying sub genre of draft discourse I’ll call “true top five watch“.

Is Carnell Tate more of a top five overall pick or more of a top 10 overall pick? This is the caliber of discussion we’re having in anticipation of seeing what the young receiver actually does. I wrote here about a handful of Carnell Tate’s rookie projections from some of the most reliable sources in fantasy sports. As reductive as it is, what his box score looks like at the end of the year is how a lot of people judge him. It’ll be the basis for whether or not he’s considered for any awards if things go well. And that’s what’s interesting to look at today: what will Tate have to do to be a good bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Why Carnell Tate is a strong bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

This feels like the annual “best rookie quarterback award” most seasons. And historically speaking, that’s the safest bet. If there are a handful of rookie quarterbacks who are going to play significant snaps in their first year, one of them is liable to get the nod. But last year, we saw plenty from Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, and Jaxson Dart. And in the end, award voters gave the nod to rookie wide receiver Tet McMillan with the Panthers.

Statistically, it’s a tad surprising in hindsight that he beat out the competition. He just barely eclipse 1000 yards, and wasn’t on an incredible team by any means. He just had a very, very good rookie season on a competent roster. Without taking anything away from what was a debut campaign that proved many wrong (myself included), it was probably a down year for the award.

Enter 2026, where the odds are pretty bunched up before we see what everybody does in summer camp and the preseason. Arizona Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love is the slight favorite at +320, followed close behind by Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza at +400. And in third is Tate at +550.

Unless the Cardinals put together a surprisingly competent offense (with what QB?), Love will have to carry that unit all on his own. That’s not typically a recipe for award-winning success. And Mendoza is playing for a franchise set to let him sit behind Kirk Cousins for at least some of his rookie season. If Tom Brady gets his way, maybe he sits for all of it. That won’t win the award.

But Tate’s projected by ESPN’s Mike Clay to have a statistical season similar to McMillan’s: 121 targets, 75 receptions, 1014 yards, and 3 touchdowns. If he get to this level of production (and grabs a couple extra touchdowns for good measure), he’ll be firmly in the conversations to win.