Kyler Murray’s issues in cold weather games are overstated, and the answers lie in the numbers
After signing with the Minnesota Vikings, Kyler Murray’s lack of success in cold-weather games was viewed as a problem.
There are a lot of narratives that hovered over Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray had when he signed back in March. From being too short to the injury bug and Call of Duty, there are plenty that fans have clung onto.
One of those is Murray’s ability to succeed in cold-weather games. When you play in the NFC North, there is a higher likelihood that games will feature the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, with the latter playing outside. It doesn’t help that the Vikings have struggled in recent years when playing in cold weather.
Facts about Kyler Murray
- Kyler Murray was selected 8th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. He then won the Heisman Trophy for the Oklahoma Sooners that fall.
- After a very successful season with the Sooners, Murray was selected first overall by the Arizona Cardinals.
- Murray has started 87 career games, amassing a 38-48-1 record with the Cardinals.
Kyler Murray has a small, yet solid track record in cold weather games
The cold-weather games narrative was one I wanted to explore on a more in-depth level. Being that he played in the NFC West and his home games were in Arizona, there couldn’t have been many opportunities for him to play in those games.
Throughout his seven-year career, the Cardinals have only played in three games that had a kickoff temperature under 40 degrees per TruMedia. He played in two of them, with the third being a Week 15 games against the Denver Broncos, one week after tearing his ACL.
- 2021: Week 13, 33-22 win @ Chicago Bears
- 2024: Week 16, 36-30 OT loss @ Carolina Panthers
Being that his offenses put up a substantial amount of points in both games, it begins to dispel that narrative. When you look at the stats and analytical data, it’s hard to say that he’s bad in cold weather.
| Game | Passing | Yards | Total TD/INT | Rush yards | EPA/Play | Success Rate |
| Bears | 11/15 | 123 | 4/0 | 59 | 0.524 | 62.5% |
| Panthers | 20/32 | 202 | 2/1 | 63 | 0.106 | 48.9% |
Where he can thrive in cold-weather games is with his legs. Murray isn’t afraid to maximize what he can do with his mobility. 122 yards and three touchdowns rushing in those two games show both a willingness and effectiveness to use his mobility.
This season, the Vikings are potentially going to play in three games this year:
- Week 10 @ Green Bay Packers
- Week 14 @ New England Patriots
- Week 17 @ New York Jets
The one thing we can’t do is say that Murray is for sure great in cold-weather games. A two-game sample size is not nearly big enough to say anything for certain. However, it’s a good sign that he’s been good in those games. If Murray can play well enough for the Vikings to win this season, that would be massive for 2026 and beyond.
