In the wonderful world of high school recruiting, there has been a modern-age debate over the power of the star rankings. The general population has been conditioned to want all the 5-star recruits, blanketly accepting another person’s evaluation out of blind faith. Nobody wants a three-star or to fall short of the beloved blue-chip ratio.

When having these deeper conversations about stars, two things can be very true: stars do matter, usually, but they also aren’t everything. Those ratings shouldn’t stop folks from doing their own homework and trusting their own eyes. Every year, some five-star players are dramatically overrated and an underrated three-star who will eventually go on a long Hall of Fame NFL career.

There are also some positions where stars matter more, and funny enough, the quarterback position isn’t one of them. The most important position in football, and very arguably in all of sports, is the one that the high school recruiting services have missed the most historically. The numbers back that up.

To back this claim up further, I decided to do a deeper dive into quarterback rankings over the years. To eliminate the widest range of outcomes, I utilized the 247 Sports Composite ranking, which takes each of the major recruiting rankings into account. While it will never be a perfect sample, this is the fairest way to figure out the hits and misses from the recruiting space.

Here is what my findings have shown. Stars matter, but not as much at quarterback.

Where top NFL quarterbacks ranked as recruits

To begin the conversation, I went through the top quarterbacks in the NFL currently – 20 to be exact. This list was made based on a combination of 2025 production and some projections injected, so there is some subjectivity in the group. Even if there is an argument about the formation of the list, adding some of the borderline players doesn’t change the sample much, if at all.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward and New York Jets signal caller Aaron Rodgers weren’t ranked as recruits, while Malik Willis (Miami Dolphins), Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons), and Fernando Mendoza (Las Vegas Raiders) were all ranked as three-star players. That balances out players like Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) being higher-ranked quarterback recruits.

Here is how 20 of the best NFL quarterbacks ranked as high school recruits (not necessarily in order).

• Matthew Stafford (2006): 5-star – No. 6 overall player – No. 1 pocket passer
• Josh Allen (2014): Unranked
• Patrick Mahomes (2014): 3-star – No. 389 overall player – No. 22 pocket passer
• Lamar Jackson (2015): 3-star – No. 398 overall player – No. 12 dual-threat
• Dak Prescott (2011): 3-star – No. 611 overall player – No. 20 dual-threat
• Drake Maye (2021): 4-star – No. 56 overall player – No. 9 quarterback
• Justin Herbert (2016): 3-star – No. 648 overall player – No. 25 pro-style passer
• Trevor Lawrence (2018): 5-star – No. 1 overall player – No. 1 pro-style passer
• Sam Darnold (2015): 4-star – No. 148 overall player – No. 5 dual-threat
• Caleb Williams (2021): 5-star – No. 7 overall player – No. 2 quarterback
• Jared Goff (2013): 4-star – No. 218 overall player – No. 15 pro-style passer
• Joe Burrow (2015): 4-star – No. 295 overall player – No. 8 dual-threat
• Jordan Love (2016): 3-star – No. 1636 overall player – No. 69 pro-style passer
• Brock Purdy (2022): 3-star – No. 839 overall player – No. 36 pro-style passer
• CJ Stroud (2020): 4-star – No. 42 overall player – No. 2 pro-style passer
• Daniel Jones (2015): 2-star – No. 2282 overall player – No. 61 dual-threat
• Baker Mayfield (2013): 3-star – No. 1021 overall player – No. 42 pro-style passer
• Bo Nix (2019): 5-star – No. 33 overall player – No. 1 dual-threat
• Jalen Hurts (2016): 4-star – No. 175 overall player – No. 3 dual-threat
• Bryce Young (2020): 5-star – No. 2 overall player – No. 1 dual-threat

Of those 20 NFL quarterbacks sampled, they averaged out to hold a 3.6-star ranking, while also rating as approximately the No. 440 overall player and No. 17 quarterback in their respective classes. Five quarterbacks ranked as five-star players, six players ranked as four-stars, seven as three-stars, one as a two-star, and one that was unranked completely.

Some are sitting there thinking, “Who cares about the NFL. Were they good college football players?”

The short answer: The results for fielding good college quarterbacks might be even worse.

5-star quarterbacks in the last 15 recruiting classes

For a deeper sample of college football success stories, I went back and looked at the composite five-star players from the last 15 recruiting classes. I excluded the 2026 recruiting class since there is no sample for how good college players they are, yet. Here are the results from those recruiting classes beginning in the 2011 class.

• 2011 class: Jeff Driskel (Florida), Braxton Miller (Ohio State)
• 2012 class: Jameis Winston (Florida State), Gunner Kiel (Notre Dame)
• 2013 class: Max Browne (USC), Christian Hackenberg (Penn State)
• 2014 class Kyle Allen (Texas A&M)
• 2015 class: Josh Rosen (UCLA), Blake Barnett (Alabama), Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
• 2016 class: Shea Patterson (Ole Miss), Jacob Eason (Georgia)
• 2017 class: Davis Mills (Stanford), Hunter Johnson (Clemson), Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
• 2018 class: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Justin Fields (Ohio State), JT Daniels (USC)
• 2019 class: Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma), Bo Nix (Auburn)
• 2020 class: Bryce Young (Alabama), DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson)
• 2021 class: Quinn Ewers (Texas), Caleb Williams (USC), Sam Huard (Washington), Brock Vandagriff (Georgia), JJ McCarthy (Michigan), Kyle McCord (Ohio State)
• 2022 class: Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Conner Weigman (Texas A&M), Ty Simpson (Alabama), Drew Allar (Penn State)
• 2023 class: Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, Dante Moore, Jackson Arnold, Malachi Nelson 
• 2024 class: Julian Sayin (Ohio State), DJ Lagway (Florida), Dylan Raiola (Nebraska)
• 2o25 class: Bryce Underwood (Michigan), Keelon Russell (Alabama), Tavien St. Clair (Ohio State), Husan Longstreet (USC), Deuce Knight (Ole Miss)

Whether you are looking for success stories as NFL or college football players from that five-star pool, it’s clear that there are a lot more misses than hits. The next time your favorite college team lands a five-star quarterback recruit, it may be recommended that you do your own work. Clearly, even the professionals miss more often than not.