Analytics just exposed a HUGE advantage for the Lions — and it spells serious trouble for the Bears
The numbers just exposed a huge advantage for the Detroit Lions in 2026, and it’s setting up a potential nightmare scenario for the Chicago Bears
As we already know, the Detroit Lions’ 2026 schedule is providing Detroit with the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this coming season. So far, the going rate for their final record predictions has been in the market of 12 wins.
We also know that the Lions’ offense, while seemingly taking a little step back last year from a top-three offense to a top-five offense. Everything points to a big-time return to form. Especially this.
The Lions’ offense has one of the easiest schedules in the NFL per DVOA
A quick note here. The higher the number, the worse the defenses are. Think of it like this, the Lions are playing defenses that, on average, were ranked in the 19.6 area or lower. For elaboration’s sake, here’s the 2025 defensive DVOA ranking of every team the Lions will play this season:
| Team | Defensive DVOA rank |
| Saints | 13th |
| Bills | 20th |
| Jets | 31st |
| Panthers | 22nd |
| Cardinals | 21st |
| Packers | 19th |
| Vikings | 3rd |
| Dolphins | 24th |
| Patriots | 23rd |
| Buccaneers | 18th |
| Bears | 25th |
| Falcons | 12th |
| Titans | 29th |
| Giants | 26th |
So the hardest defense the Lions will play in 2026, if everything holds similar to this, is the one that beat the heck out of them on Christmas Day last season.
You have to be prepared for the idea that some of these defenses could improve. But how big is that improvement going to be? Enough to take them from the low 20s to the top 10? That’s a big jump, and we’ll have to wait and see if it happens.
The other big takeaway from the chart here is that the 2025 NFC North champion Chicago Bears are going to have one hell of a wrecking crew to take on all season. They’re 30th on this list. Let’s take a deep look at their opponents.
| Team | Defensive DVOA Rank |
| Panthers | 22nd |
| Vikings | 3rd |
| Eagles | 7th |
| Jets | 31st |
| Packers | 19th |
| Falcons | 12th |
| Patriots | 23rd |
| Seahawks | 1st |
| Buccaneers | 18th |
| Saints | 13th |
| Lions | 9th |
| Jaguars | 6th |
| Dolphins | 24th |
| Bills | 20th |
That is significantly more difficult than what the Lions have on their schedule. Can the Bears hold up against the schedule the year after having a similar schedule, essentially as what Detroit has this year? This is where we’ll really get to see what is what.
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