The biggest storyline with the Minnesota Vikings this offseason has been with their future at quarterback. The signing of Kyler Murray has been a huge factor in that discussion, and it was all due to the lack of success J.J. McCarthy had in his first two years.

His biggest issue has been availability, being able to play in just 10 of a possible 35 games due to injuries. That’s a huge problem for anyone, but especially a young quarterback trying to get his footing in the NFL.

We’ve had the discussion about McCarthy in many different ways over the last few months, but there is one element that hasn’t been discussed nearly enough.

J.J. McCarthy’s lack of success with Vikings needs context

Sports Illustrated’s Michael Rosenberg wrote about how the NFL has an impatient culture with quarterbacks, and it’s quite an interesting discussion from both sides of the coin.

When you look at how McCarthy compares to his contemporaries through 243 passes, he’s the worst of the bunch.

Caleb Williams (No. 1 pick): 1,665 yards, 9 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 83.0 passer rating
Jayden Daniels (No. 2 pick):  2,147 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 101.8 passer rating
Drake Maye (No. 3 pick): 1,696 yards, 10 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 85.7 passer rating
Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 pick): 1,943 yards, 7 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 79.8 passer rating
McCarthy (No. 10 pick): 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 72.6 passer rating
Bo Nix (No. 12 pick): 1,530 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 81.4 passer rating

It’s a very small sample size overall, but it does raise an interesting point. How much grace should he get for his poor performance when you consider he was handed a Rolls-Royce?

He wasn’t given a poor supporting cast like quarterbacks who are taken in the top three. Williams and Maye both had rough supporting casts in their first season and have grown into really good quarterbacks. McCarthy was given the best wide receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson, along with a solid offensive line, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and a talented running back duo in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Pair that with an elite play designer and talented play caller in Kevin O’Connell, and McCarthy shouldn’t get the same kind of grace that others have gotten.

The metrics don’t lie, either. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in 2025 with 300 snaps played, McCarthy was one of the worst in the league, and he did that with a great supporting cast.

Meetric	Stat	Rank
EPA/Play	-0.101	33rd
Success Rate	43.8%	32nd
CPOE	-5.7	34th
Completion Percentage	64.5%	31st
Air Yards	9.0	7th

There is an interesting aspect to the discussion as well. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis highlighted that McCarthy’s process was far from consistent, which is a tough thing to parse out.

Then there’s the consistency piece: how McCarthy shows up to work every day and how his habits progress in his third season. The Vikings have a high standard at the position. They want the starting quarterback to lift the tide for the entire team in 2026. This requires a level of discipline, which was up and down last season for McCarthy.
The Athletic’s Alec Lewis

How much of that process can be fixed going into his third year? That much is yet to be seen, but the poor process does help explain the rough performance. Will the Vikings have the patience required to keep investing in McCarthy? Rosenberg opines that they may have already decided to move on.

O’Connell has said repeatedly, before and after trading for Murray, that he wanted to add “competition.” This sounds like he wants somebody else to start, but O’Connell has not said that.

When it comes to the specific task of getting the most out of whoever is playing quarterback, O’Connell is one of the top five head coaches in the NFL. If O’Connell has privately said McCarthy will never be a viable starter, then he is probably right. 

The next few months are going to be interesting to parse out, as McCarthy’s future is in serious doubt.