Jake Ferguson was the quietest weapon on the Dallas Cowboys last year, and it could all change in 2026
The Dallas Cowboys tight end scored eight touchdowns in 2025 yet it felt like another “down year” in many other ways. Let’s take an in-depth look into why, and how it could get better in 2026.
Looking at stats from last year’s Dallas Cowboys, I have to say… I wouldn’t have guessed Jake Ferguson’s touchdown total. Go on, I’ll give you a chance to take a stab at it.
I’d wager you went lower than eight, didn’t you? That’s right, Ferguson caught eight touchdown passes throughout the 2025 NFL season. He did so very quietly, as many have been worried about him not returning to his 2023 breakout form.
Yet, last year he set career highs in catches and touchdowns with the same number of targets as he had in 2023. So why did it not feel that way? Well, I decided to look a little bit deeper into why Ferguson’s eight-touchdown season came and went in quiet fashion and why he could get very loud in 2026.
Ferguson’s drop-off shows in other areas of his game
First of all, let me answer why Ferguson’s 2025 season didn’t feel nearly as good as 2023 did. In short, he wasn’t a very efficient pass-catcher nor an explosive one. A large part of that was a lack of broken tackles but also about his overall usage.
Just take a look at his drop-off with 2023-2025 stat comparison below (all numbers via Sports Info Solutions, min. 30 targets):
| Stat/Metric | 2023 rank among TEs | 2025 rank among TEs |
| EPA/target | 14th | 31st |
| Explosive play rate | 17th | 42nd |
| 1st down rate | 13th | 46th |
| Yards per route run | 16th | 33rd |
| Broken + missed tackles per catch | 9th | 27th |
In none of the above stats did Ferguson rank higher than 27th. Not great. But while Ferguson wasn’t nearly as efficient as he was in previous seasons (more on why later), he was a serious threat in the red zone.
Seven of Ferguson’s eight touchdowns came inside the 20-yard line, the sixth-most in the NFL including wide receivers and tight ends. To illustrate how impressive that is, consider this: George Pickens’ four red zone touchdowns were second on the team and tied for 23rd in the league.
So if Ferguson was so dangerous in scoring situations, what went wrong with his numbers?
So what went wrong?
After reviewing the numbers and film, I believe two things are true.
Firstly, Ferguson was clearly not as consistent breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact. In the same amount of targets, his yards after the catch went from 429 in 2023 to 306 last year. As noted above, his broken/missed tackles forced rate went from Top 10 in the league to 27th.
But I also believe that had plenty to do with how he was used. In 2025, Ferguson ran many more routes that resulted in him not having plenty of room to break tackles (flats, comebacks, curls, and check & releases). In 2023, he had 30 such targets, which shot up to 43 in 2025.
I looked into those numbers because there are plenty of instances in film when you can just tell he isn’t in position to make a play.
Additionally, Ferguson was heavily involved in pass protection on obvious passing downs (often third and longs where he could be pushing down the field) to make up for questionable pass protection at offensive tackle. When asked to chip edge rushers to buy some time for the tackles, naturally, he wasn’t in a good spot to move the chains.
Why I’m betting Ferguson will bounce back in 2026
Though we are three years removed from Ferguson’s breakout 2023 season, I am buying his stock going into 2026 for three big reasons.
Firstly, Ferguson remains a red zone threat and one that quarterback Dak Prescott clearly trusts. Secondly, he remains a threat running routes down the seam and making tough catches. I believe one of the ways the Brian Schottenheimer offense can evolve is by expanding on how they use Ferguson.
And lastly, there are 2025 flashes that suggest Ferguson can return to his former YAC monster self.
Just take a look at the play below from Week 12, where All-Pro linebacker Zach Baun, All-Pro cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, and safety Reed Blankenship struggle to bring him down as he battles for the first and goal.
The juice is not all gone. Now it’s all about finding a way to making use of it. If the Cowboys can get the former version of Ferguson back, there may be no stopping the offense this year.