Like many rookies, there were moments from Jaxson Dart last season that showed the promise and the untapped potential the Ole Miss product possesses.

However, there were plenty of moments that had New York Giants fans shaking their heads as well. Such is life with a rookie quarterback taking over during the season.

Dart enters the 2026 season as the unquestioned starter on a New York team that’s young, but has positioned itself to take a step forward after a busy offseason.

New head coach John Harbaugh should immediately change the culture for the better inside the building. Dart has a new protector in Miami OT Francis Mauigoa and a pair of new weapons in the passing game in former Ravens TE Isaiah Likely and Notre Dame WR Malachi Fields, who the team selected in the third round of the 2026 NFL Draft after trading up.

But one national outlet sees some potential struggles for the Giants’ young QB in his sophomore season. Pro Football Focus’ Mark Chichester recently put out a list of eight QBs likely to throw more interceptions than last season, and Dart checked in at No. 5.

Giants QB Jaxson Dart makes Pro Football Focus list of 8 QBs likely to see interceptions increase in 2026

“Dart’s 2025 debut mirrors Ward’s in several ways: a promising young quarterback whose official interception total paints a better picture than reality,” Chichester wrote. “His turnover-worthy-throw-to-interception conversion rate (27.3%) was the second-lowest among quarterbacks on this list and sat barely above half the league average. Dart produced 11 turnover-worthy throws, but only three became interceptions, while defenders dropped three additional would-be picks. He finished the season with five interceptions despite a league-average model projecting closer to eight.

“The implications of that likely regression are slightly different in Dart’s case. He entered 2025 amid uncertainty and finished the year with a reputation heavily shaped by a five-interception season. If that total rises into the eight- or nine-interception range in 2026 — entirely consistent with what the data would predict — the narrative will likely center around sophomore struggles or defenses adjusting to him.

“There may be some truth to those explanations, but the larger point remains: the interception expectation was never truly as low as the box score suggested.”

PFF’s logic is fair, as the only way to predict an increase in turnovers is when you put the ball in jeopardy.

But it’s also hard to gauge what will happen with a player’s increase in awareness and ball protection from one year to the other. It’s also hard to predict how a new coaching staff and a new offensive game plan will affect those totals, with Harbaugh and new OC Matt Nagy in the building.

Dart also has an innate ability to tuck and run that’s better than most quarterbacks possess. Last year, he totaled 487 rushing yards and nine rushing scores. So, with development will come the ability to process more quickly, take the positive gains, and avoid mistakes.

And, of course, it’s impossible to predict just how “lucky” he will be with drops and/or great plays by his wide receivers to bail him out of less than perfect throws.

It’s fair to see why he was included on this list, but it’s still a significant exercise in guesswork on how this will all play out in 2026.