Detroit Lions 2026 stat projections: Mike Payton’s annual crystal-ball exercise is back
Detroit Lions offense is loaded with weapons. So loaded that projecting the stats might be harder than ever. We took a swing at every major number for 2026 and the results are interesting.
It’s that time of year again. My annual stat projection piece for the Detroit Lions’ offense.
I don’t mean to pat myself on the back, but I’ve been pretty good at this. Like, for instance, the 2023 stat projection for Amon-Ra St. Brown. I predicted ahead of the season that St. Brown would have 115 receptions for 1,516 yards and 10 touchdowns. He wound up with 119 receptions, 1,516 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Or last season I did this:
Not dead on like the St. Brown one, but pretty close. So let’s see if I can keep this streak of decent guesses going in 2026. Let’s jump into the projections.
Passing
I’ve got Goff having another really solid season. He has so many weapons at his disposal this year that it’s hard not to see him having another standout season. This would have him return to his 2024 completion percentage of 72% under the idea that he should have a much-improved offensive line.
Goff doesn’t hit any career numbers anywhere, but this is still a very productive season that’s Pro Bowl worthy.
Rushing
Hey, even Goff gets one in the end zone on the ground. By the way, I do not expect all of those 41 yards to come on one play.
The Lions say they’re going to make Gibbs the bell cow. Well, it doesn’t get much more bell cow than this. I mean, it could, but the Lions will have the benefits of having Pacheco there, so you probably won’t see Gibbs put up 2,000 yards anytime soon. This is as bell cow as it gets for a team that has two good running backs.
Don’t expect Pacheco to put up David Montgomery numbers, but if they could get this out of him, that is not bad at all. Even Vaki will see the field in his usual blowout win/loss capacity.
I expect Jameson Williams to get back to doing some of those end-around plays he was known for early in his career. But it’s not something they’ll do every week, obviously.
Receiving
Ok, St. Brown’s output has been pretty much the same every year, and it’s right in this ballpark. So we’re going to project that he does something like this again. He’s the Lions’ top receiver, and there’s a reason for that.
Williams goes over a thousand yards again, but it’s hard to see him go way over based on how many mouths there are to feed on this offense. Plus, with TeSlaa’s production projected to go way up, it just makes sense that you see a tiny bit less of Williams.
Dortch is the hard one to figure out because Drew Petzing really liked to use him in Arizona, but he also didn’t have all the weapons he has here. I could see a world where Dortch has more than this, but I can also see it landing right in this realm.
With 472 yards through the air and 1,402 yards on the ground, Gibbs doesn’t go over 2,000 all-purpose yards this year, but again, you can attribute that to LaPorta being back and TeSlaa’s production going up.
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